281
FXUS63 KDLH 051142
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
642 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 40-60MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN THREATS.
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT, WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEXT WEEK, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS,
IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST MN. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THAT COINCIDED WITH A
DECREASE IN STORM STRENGTH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS HIGH INTO THE
NORTHLAND, AND EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD, SLOWLY PUSHING THE BAND OF
RAIN EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES SHIFTING TO OVER NORTHWEST WI. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED THROUGH THE DAY, AS FORCING WEAKENS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE EAST. PW VALUES REMAIN QUITE
ELEVATED AT 2.0+ INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SOIL CONDITIONS AND A MORE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE RAINFALL TODAY,
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM GIVEN WIND
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS, BUT LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER WITH MUCH
LOWER CAPE VALUES THAN SEEN ON FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH DRIER/RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MORE
SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK. A MORE ZONAL MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT, THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY STRONG
SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
FOR KDLH: DENSE FOG AND VLIFR CEILINGS AS OF 1130Z SHOULD
IMPROVE TOWARDS 1200Z AS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVES BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH, THOUGH THE FOG COULD STILL BE
IFR TO MVFR THROUGH 13Z ALONG WITH LIFR CEILINGS. CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS THE 17-18Z TIMEFRAME WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE
OUT A STRAY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES THIS MORNING, BUT
POTENTIAL IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. TOWARDS 21-01Z TIMEFRAME,
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP BEHIND THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT, BUT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN VICINITY OF OR NEAR THE TERMINAL WILL
BE AT OR BELOW 20%. SKIES SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH CONTINUED CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ALSO VEER NORTHWESTERLY
AT 15-20 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CANADIAN
WILDFIRE SMOKE COULD MIX TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
MUCH SURFACE VISIBILITY WILL BE AFFECTED.
KHIB/KINL/KBRD/KHYR: KINL REMAINS LARGELY VFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA, THE NORTH SHORE, AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL
GRADUALLY SEE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIFT EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED, THOUGH ANY STORM TODAY, PARTICULARLY FOR HYR COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. LIFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES WITH THIS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS
BEHIND IT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH TODAY, SCATTERING BACK OUT TO VFR FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ALSO VEER NORTHWESTERLY
AT 15-20 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOME CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE
COULD MIX TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW MUCH SURFACE
VISIBILITY WILL BE AFFECTED.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH WIND GUSTS AT THE HEAD OF THE
LAKE AT 15-20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15KTS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ011-012-
019>021-025-026-033>037.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...HA
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