452
FXUS63 KDLH 051747
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 40-60MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN THREATS.
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT, WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEXT WEEK, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS,
IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST MN. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THAT COINCIDED WITH A
DECREASE IN STORM STRENGTH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS HIGH INTO THE
NORTHLAND, AND EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD, SLOWLY PUSHING THE BAND OF
RAIN EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES SHIFTING TO OVER NORTHWEST WI. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED THROUGH THE DAY, AS FORCING WEAKENS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE EAST. PW VALUES REMAIN QUITE
ELEVATED AT 2.0+ INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SOIL CONDITIONS AND A MORE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE RAINFALL TODAY,
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM GIVEN WIND
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS, BUT LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER WITH MUCH
LOWER CAPE VALUES THAN SEEN ON FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH DRIER/RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MORE
SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK. A MORE ZONAL MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT, THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY STRONG
SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. CLEARING IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE FRONT IS
MOVING RATHER SLOWLY. SHOWERS AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE MAY BE A FEW
STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS
THAT SEE CLEARING MAY GUST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH WIND GUSTS AT THE HEAD OF THE
LAKE AT 15-20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15KTS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...HA
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