206
FXUS63 KDLH 052119
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
419 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ENDS TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF PRICE AND IRON COUNTIES.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A BRIEF WARM UP
THURSDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEK,
BUT NO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE NORTH SHORE INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
UPPER MICHIGAN. A SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND LEADING TO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLEAR SKIES WERE LOCATED BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IRON AND PRICE COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. CURRENT
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN THAT AREA WITH
MINIMAL SHEAR. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 60
MPH. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2" ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS WELL,
SO HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY,
WHICH HELPS TO TEMPER THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S MAKING
FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, BUT
CHANCES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 20%. CLOUDS THEN INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD. MOST OF THE
RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL BUT CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR SOME NEAR SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
SHOWERS AND A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER FOR
TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
70S AND LOWER 80S. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM INTO THE 80S FOR
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T CURRENTLY LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE STORMS, BUT THAT MAY CHANGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
RAINFALL CHANCES THEN LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
PULLING BACK INTO THE 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. CLEARING IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE FRONT IS
MOVING RATHER SLOWLY. SHOWERS AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE MAY BE A FEW
STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS
THAT SEE CLEARING MAY GUST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THIS EVENING. IMPROVEMENT HAS ALREADY BEEN
SEEN AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE, BUT A SCAN OF WEBCAMS ALONG THE
NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES SHORE POOR VISIBILITY ELSEWHERE. ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND CLEAR SKIES ARRIVE, FOG IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TURN
NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS FOR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
AGAIN MONDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
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