630
FXUS63 KDLH 070541
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1241 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- DRY MIDWEEK BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
ASIDE FROM A BRIEF WARMUP THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WERE KEEPING COOLER CONDITIONS
IN PLACE NEAR THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR TONIGHT WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE BACKING OFF ON ANY SHOWER
POTENTIAL.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HI-
RES CAMS BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE WILL BE AROUND 800-1200 J/KG WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH
AND NON-SEVERE HAIL. THIS THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH NON-SEVERE STORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME BRIEF, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH PWATS REACHING 1-1.25
INCHES. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
SOME COOLER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
FOR WEDNESDAY DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF AN
UPPER LOW. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND
WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S IN PLACE BY THURSDAY.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE THURSDAY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING
INTO THE 60S SIGNALING A RETURN TO MUGGY CONDITIONS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL CREST THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THE TIMING AND THE WEAKNESS OF THIS
WAVE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS.
A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW THEN LOOKS TO MOVE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
POTENCY OF THE UPPER LOW AND EARLY SIGNALS OF THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETER SPACE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ON FRIDAY IF THE TIMING WORKS OUT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S STARTING FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. THERE ARE SMALL
CHANCES (~20%) FOR SOME FOG, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY, AND MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
END LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO
COME DOWN, SO WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH MID-
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST FOR MONDAY
AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS BEFORE DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...BJH
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