024  
FXUS63 KDLH 092328  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
628 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY  
NIGHT. A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
LARGE HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT, MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS  
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL, GUSTY  
WINDS, AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT.  
 
- OCCASIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
CURRENT WEATHER SYNOPSIS:  
 
LOW STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING HAS CLEARED OUT, LEADING TO AREAS  
OF DIURNAL STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE  
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, AND WE'RE DEALING WITH QUIET WEATHER THIS  
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR  
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER BY THE LAKE INTO TONIGHT.  
 
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY:  
 
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. RIDGING WILL  
STRENGTHEN ALOFT GOING INTO THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING  
INCREASING INSTABILITY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH THIS  
INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED. WARM FRONTAL INSTABILITY IS  
NEVERTHELESS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 1-2 KJ/KG (OR PERHAPS A BIT  
HIGHER) RANGE AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE (~20%) FOR SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO  
BE PRETTY WEAK (UP TO ~25 KT), SO WE'RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THERE COULD BE SOME SMALLER HAIL, IF  
ANYTHING, THOUGH FREEZING HEIGHTS >12 KFT MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.  
CAMS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR HOW ANY STORMS MAY FORM AND ORGANIZE  
THURSDAY MORNING, AND PERHAPS RIGHTFULLY SO WITH RATHER WEAK  
SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER  
RIDGING ALOFT AND UNCERTAINTIES OWING TO CAPPING AT THE SURFACE.  
HENCE, POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THURSDAY MORNING, BUT SOME PLACES COULD  
GET HIT WITH SOME STORMS.  
 
THINGS GET COOKING A LITTLE MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY  
CONTINUES TO BUILD, THOUGH THE QUESTION REMAINS IF ANY INSTABILITY  
CAN BECOME ROOTED AT THE SURFACE, AS CONTINUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION  
MAY KEEP THE INVERSION IN PLACE. MOST PLACES WILL PROBABLY END UP  
SEEING ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY AS A RESULT, BUT THE POSSIBILITY  
FOR A STRAY STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.  
 
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, INTRODUCING SOME BETTER  
FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE  
INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD STILL BE HANGING AROUND TO BE REALIZED.  
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL (UP TO 20 KT), SO HAIL WILL BE THE  
MAIN THREAT, BUT EVEN THAT IS MARGINAL AGAIN OWING TO HIGHER  
FREEZING LEVELS. MOST PLACES IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA COULD PICK  
UP A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FROM THIS INITIAL ROUND.  
 
OUTSIDE OF RAIN CHANCES, EXPECT SOME TOASTY TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY  
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION (COOLER BY LAKE SUPERIOR) WITH ALL THE  
WARM AIR MOVING IN.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:  
 
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, THERE  
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWATS TO 1.5") FOR DIURNAL  
HEATING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SOLID  
REINVIGORATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO  
FAVOR TOTAL AMOUNTS HOVERING AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF  
FOR MOST PLACES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AND LOWER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.  
SOME OUTLYING MODELS SUGGEST SOME LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AND PERHAPS  
APPROACHING 4 INCH AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. NBM  
PROBABILITIES FOR 2" OR GREATER REMAINS AT ABOUT 15-20%, SO WHILE  
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, THAT'S NOT THE  
LIKELY SOLUTION. THUS, THE RISK FOR FLOODING REMAINS MARGINAL, AND  
WPC HAS MOST OF THE REGION HIGHLIGHTED FOR A MARGINAL FLOODING  
RISK. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE.  
 
SEVERE THREATS REMAIN RATHER MARGINAL FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING AS WELL AS SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE WEAK. HAIL UP TO ABOUT  
QUARTER SIZE LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AND GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE  
RULED OUT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND DIURNAL  
HEATING GOES AWAY, THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO  
FAIRLY QUICKLY DECREASE LATER FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.  
 
ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH, AND SOME  
WRAPAROUND NON-SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REDEVELOP. ANY  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THAT SHOULD BE PRETTY MINIMAL.  
 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS BOTH  
DAYS.  
 
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:  
 
RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE IN ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY FROM THE WEST WITH  
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP A  
SMIDGE. WE MAY SEE SOME QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY, THEN  
PERHAPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME RAIN/STORM CHANCES INTO  
TUESDAY AND MAYBE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE  
EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST MAY BRING SOME  
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS ON  
THE LOW END FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS HIGH RES GUIDANCE REMAINS  
INCONSISTENT WITH ITS SIGNAL. DEPENDING ON HOW THE MORNING PLAYS OUT  
WE MAY HAVE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
TOMORROW.  
 
 
   
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/  
 
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH GUSTS  
DURING THE DAY UP TO 15 KT, MAYBE 20 KT ON THE HIGH END.  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, AND ANY STORMS  
COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, BRIEF GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS, AND CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING. WINDS SHIFT A  
LITTLE MORE EASTERLY TO PERHAPS SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  
 
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA  
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.  
 
 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...JDS  
AVIATION...BRITT  
MARINE...JDS  
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