374  
FXUS63 KDLH 101147  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
647 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- STORMS IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LIKELY TO IMPACT AT LEAST PART  
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IRON RANGE THIS MORNING.  
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
- CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING ARE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS  
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING.  
 
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE CHANCES ARE  
UNCERTAIN.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
A LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING TO THE EAST WILL AFFECT THE  
BORDERLANDS AND IRON RANGE THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE WEAK  
DUE TO THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, SOME  
AREAS UNDER THE LINE HAS SEEN OVER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF  
RAIN, AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE HIGHEST  
REFLECTIVITIES. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH  
ACCOMPANYING THE LINE WILL BE UP AND DOWN THROUGHOUT THE  
MORNING. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL GO, AS  
THE CAMS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY ACCURATELY REPRESENTING THE  
CONVECTION.  
 
INITIATION TIMING FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL  
DEPEND ON IF/WHEN THE CAP ALOFT ERODES FROM DIURNAL HEATING.  
INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,  
THOUGH WIND SHEAR IS MODEST, AT 15-25 KTS ACROSS THE CWA. STORM  
MODE WILL WHEN LIKELY BE STATIONARY UP- AND-DOWN CELLS, WITH  
MAIN HAZARDS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER, MODEL  
SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT A LIMITED THREAT FOR HAIL FROM HIGH  
MOISTURE AND THE HEIGHT OF THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. PWATS 1.5-2"  
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED  
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND STARTING FRIDAY  
MORNING AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE  
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LARGELY REMAIN THE SAME WITH PLENTY OF  
INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH, THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW WHERE SHEAR INCREASES JUST  
BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH MAY BE THE EXTRA BOOST NEEDED TO CREATE  
A FEW SEVERE STORMS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL AGAIN BE HAIL. PWATS  
WILL REMAIN HIGH, THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUING.  
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS  
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  
 
A WEAK RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY, LEADING TO WARM  
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS SHOWS  
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS EARLY AS MONDAY DUE TO  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN WESTERN ONTARIO, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS  
US DRY STILL UNDER THE RIDGE UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER  
WAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH AND LEADING TO HEAVY  
RAINFALL WHERE REFLECTIVITIES ARE HIGHEST. HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE  
IFR VISIBILITIES AS IT PASSES. CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IS STILL UNCERTAIN,  
BUT TRIED TO COVER THE TIME PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN  
PROB30S AND TEMPOS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT  
WHERE RAIN FALLS.  
 

 
   
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
 
 
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR, AND HIGHEST WINDS  
OF UP TO 15 KTS WILL BE AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. WAVES TODAY  
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN 1-2 FT RANGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH STORMY CONDITIONS STARTING EARLY AS MID  
MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES CONTINUE  
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD TO  
WATER LIGHTNING AND HAIL.  
 
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA  
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...KML  
AVIATION...KML  
MARINE...KML  
 
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