006
FXUS63 KDLH 121145
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SMOKY CONDITIONS.
- MORE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, ON SUNDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT GAVE US STORMS YESTERDAY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LINGER AS THERE IS
STILL A MARGINAL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
FROM NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING, INCREASING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT
A CELL OR TWO COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TODAY, A NICE BREAK FROM THE RECENT HEAT. SMOKE THAT WAS
BROUGHT SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO LINGER TODAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLOW ALOFT TURNS BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
THE COOL WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG, HOWEVER, AS THE HEAT
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA, WITH A JET STREAM EXIT REGION TO ASSIST WITH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE
EVENING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MONDAY A RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL LARGELY KEEP US HOT, HUMID, AND
WITH NO PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, THAT WON'T LAST
LONG AS THE JET STREAM SURGES SOUTH. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL HELP INITIATE STORMS MONDAY EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN LINGER AT
LATE AS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES AND WE WILL GET A GLIMPSE OF EARLY FALL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLOWLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON
WHERE/WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
A COMBINATION OF FOG, RAIN, AND SMOKE ARE LEADING TO REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT THE TERMINALS. DLH AND HYR SPECIFICALLY WILL SEE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, BUT SMOKE WILL LINGER. MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH THE SMOKE, BUT IT MAY
THIN AS WE MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH OF
IF/WHEN THE SMOKE WILL THIN ENOUGH TO GET VFR VISIBILITIES.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 KTS. WAVES UP TO 2 FT ARE EXPECTED AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TRANSITIONING NORTH AND EAST. SMOKY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
ON SUNDAY, WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AND STORMS POSSIBLE YET AGAIN
IN THE EVENING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
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