661
FXUS63 KDLH 161132
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
632 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. RAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST.
- TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ONE MORE WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ROLL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. IT IS ABOUT TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AFFECT MOST OF NW WI AND EAST
CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO WI DURING THE
DAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM A LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
IA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH MOST
OF THE HEAT AND INSTABILITY POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, OUR RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER,
RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AN AREA THAT RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAIN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND MAY BE
VULNERABLE TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING. FOR NOW WE HAVE CONTINUED
SEVERAL AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN NORTHWEST WI INTO THE MORNING
HOURS IN CASE OF RENEWED FLOODING. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IN THE
BROADER SCALE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WHICH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE PULLING OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ALMOST AUTUMN LIKE WITH EASTERLY
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING HIGH TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS
AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE IN THE 50S. ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CREEP INTO THE 60S, BUT IT JUST IS NOT GOING TO BE A VERY
WARM DAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE 40S AS WELL.
THURSDAY...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...
AS WARM AIR SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
ANOTHER PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
JET AND SHORTWAVE PUSH BACK OUT OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT
IS HARD TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING VERY CLOSELY ON THIS SYSTEM JUST
YET, BUT AM MOST CONFIDENT IN GETTING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT, WHEN WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AFTER A DRIER AND WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN TO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPS A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW STATES AND BC/AL, WHICH PUSHES
SOME SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. WE SHOULD GET ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP OVER
THE AREA, BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE UNCERTAIN. THIS SHOULD
ALSO GIVE US SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THOSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NORTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AS OF ISSUANCE TIME. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS OVER KHYR, KDLH AND KBRD, LIFTING
TO MVFR OR EVE VFR FOR KHIB AND KINL. THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR
ALL TERMINALS WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING DURING THE DAY TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
FOR KDLH AND KBRD AROUND MID-DAY, THEN TO VFR EARLY THIS
EVENING. KHYR SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN TO
MVFR TONIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON THE BIG LAKE
TODAY WILL CAUSE BUILDING WAVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE LAKE. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TODAY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS ALSO
DECREASE AND BACK INTO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY, BEFORE SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
WINDS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE WITH WAVES OF A FOOT OR LESS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
143>148-150.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
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