911
FXUS63 KDLH 181740
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- SUNSHINE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND ONCE RAIN DEPARTS ON SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE AREA STARTING ON SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. AS LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING, PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WHILE THIS MORNING FOG HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD, THERE
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AS
DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM THE WEST.
FLOW ALOFT TODAY WITHIN THE 500-250MB LAYER WILL LARGELY BE ZONAL
TODAY, EVEN AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500MB PROPAGATES THROUGH
THE CWA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA STARTING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING ON AND OFF INTO
TONIGHT. SINCE DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WON'T BE
PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED WITH TODAY'S SYSTEM, RAINFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.
TOTAL QPF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO AROUND 0.5" ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE 00Z HREF PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF 1" OF RAIN, WHICH WILL BE MOST
LIKELY IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN
THE LOCATION OF THESE LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1" IS LOW
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHEN IT COMES TO THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, MUCAPE WILL BE
MODEST AT SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG WITH EVEN MORE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF ONLY 6 DEGC/KM. WHILE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE AT 50+ KNOTS, THE MODEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SHALLOW STORMS BEING TORN APART FAIRLY QUICKLY. DUE TO THESE
FACTORS, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES DOWNSTREAM ON SATURDAY MORNING, HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL USHER IN
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT
NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE MAY BRING
WILDFIRE SMOKE INTO THE CWA, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO AIR QUALITY
CONCERNS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE ANY POOR AIR QUALITY THAT MAY ARISE ON SATURDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT A HEAT DOME IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE THE
JETSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS AND LIKELY KEEP THE PATTERN ACTIVE
FOR OUR AREA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE CWA
NEXT WEEK WILL BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING WEST TO
EAST EARLY TO MID SATURDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR FOR
MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THE EVENING, THROUGH SOME PERIODIC MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE RAIN/FEW EMBEDDED STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DECREASE EVEN MORE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS STILL EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, BUT CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SPREADING
IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND RAIN
SHOWERS ARRIVE, CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN
ON THE QUIET SIDE. EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES OF 2
FEET OR LESS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TONIGHT. NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH THERE MAY OCCASIONALLY BE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...UNRUH
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