288
FXUS63 KDLH 141734
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1234 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS (THREAT LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
THIS EVENING FOR AREAS WEST OF ST. LOUIS COUNTY AND PINE.
- MORE STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
- HEAVY RAIN RISK INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS BRAINERD LAKES INTO NW WI.
- SUNDAY WILL SEE INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WITH A 30-40%
OF GALES. EXPECT HIGH SWIM RISK DUE TO RIP CURRENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
ANOTHER MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE. RADAR THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTS SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. SOME OF
THE MORE COARSE MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO SWING THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHLAND LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ON THE OTHER HAND IS
A LITTLE LESS EXCITED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. THE LOW LEVEL
JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
WHICH WILL LESSEN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORTATION. FOR NOW, WE HAVE
SCALED THE POPS DOWN A BIT TO AROUND 20%. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL HELP WITH SOME FORCING, BUT EVEN
THAT WAVE DOES NOT LOOK TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH. LARGELY EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY.
THIS EVENING:
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF THIS BOUNDARY. INITIATION LOOKS TO
BE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH THE NORTHLAND RUNNING INTO STRONGER CIN AND LESS STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE WE DO EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS
THEY MOVE EAST THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF OUR WEST. PRIMARILY LOOKING AT AT
COUNTIES WEST OF ST. LOUIS AND PINE. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
FRIDAY:
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. THERE
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHAKE OUT
FOR FRIDAY. THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAVE A STABLE AIR
MASS THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. SOUNDINGS SHOWCASE CAPPING OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION AS WELL, ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
PARTICULARLY STRONG CAP. IF A STORM DID MANAGE TO FORM IT WILL HAVE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO WORK WITH. PLENTY OF BULK SHEAR
(45KTS) AND INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG). THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY:
THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN ELONGATED
BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW LEVEL JET
RAMPS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MN FEEDING HIGHER PWATS INTO THE THE
REGION. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE FOR PWATS OF OVER 1.75" WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL ALSO
BE AROUND 4KM LEADING TO EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. MEAN
WIND FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR TRAINING
STORMS WITH A FEW MODELS HINTING AT AN MCS FORMATION. WPC HAS
UPGRADED IT'S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO A SLIGHT (RISK LEVEL 2
OUT OF 4) FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION EAST INTO WASHBURN. THE
00Z SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS HOLDING ONTO THE SIGNAL
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY WAVERS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SUNDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK:
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER ONTARIO WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 60S. THERE IS ALSO A 30-40% CHANCE THAT GALES
WILL BE PRESENT LEADING TO AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES (20-30%) FOR RAIN AS
A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD.
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO MIGRATES EAST ON MONDAY WITH THE
WIND THREAT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DIMINISHING. OFF AND ON RAIN
CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERWARDS, HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND WE SEE A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S BY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
LARGELY VFR CIG HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING MVFR CIGS AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY PROPAGATE NORTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN FOG TONIGHT IS
HIGHEST FOR KHIB, WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE FOR KINL AND KBRD.
CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW MORNING AS SKIES BEGIN
TO CLEAR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES MAY BUILD UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET NEAR GRAND MARAIS. OVERNIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURN AND
CHANCES LINGERING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY. EVEN THOUGH WINDS SHIFT
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY, A PERIOD OF PROLONGED EASTERLY WINDS SET
UP. THE WEATHER PATTERN ON SUNDAY FAVORS AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. THIS ALSO COULD (30-40% CHANCE)
BE A DAY OF GALE-FORCE WINDS 35-40 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY INTO THE TWIN
PORTS. GALE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN TIME FOR SUNDAY IF CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...BRITT/NLY
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