154
FXUS63 KDLH 161146
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
646 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A FEW WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
A STALLED COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM NEAR
MARATHON, ONTARIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO DULUTH TO NEAR ABERDEEN.
NORTH OF THE FRONT, DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY BREEZES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JETS AND INCREASED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD, GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING
AS THE JET FEATURES QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, A MCS IS ROTATING EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND
INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MN AND INTO NORTHWEST WI THIS
MORNING, RIDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT, WITHIN AN
AXIS OF INCREASED CAPE. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MCS WILL
SKIRT SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND, ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY
210 AND THEN ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
IS POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MCS THAT COULD IMPACT THE
NORTH SHORE, BUT THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD THIS
MORNING WILL FURTHER STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE STALLED FRONT, PREVENTING ANY WAVERING OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY SPREADING BACK NORTHWARD.
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MCS MOVING INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA BETWEEN 7-8AM AND TRACKING ENE CROSSING I-35 BY 9AM, WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXITING NORTHWEST WI BY 1PM. THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, EXPECT LAPSE RATES TO DECREASE WHILE THE MCS
IS OUTRUNNING THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS CURRENTLY FEEDING IT,
RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND. FURTHERMORE, THE AIRMASS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS
A BIT MORE STABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY EVENING THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
MCS, IT IS UNLIKELY THE AIRMASS RECOVERS TO SUSTAIN OR INCREASE
A SEVERE POTENTIAL. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WIND GUSTS OF
30-40MPH WITH THE MCS, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT.
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST SUNDAY, IN RESPONSE TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COOL BREEZES OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BRING SUNDAY MORNING LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE ARROWHEAD, AND 50S ELSEWHERE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA, WITH RIDGING BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA, CURRENTLY
LOCATED FROM ASX TO BRD, WITH NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENTS AND MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NOTED AT TERMINALS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
MVFR CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL
CIG DROPS AT DLH AND BRD. NEAR THE FRONT, PREVAILING CIG HEIGHTS
ARE BETWEEN 1500FT AND 3KFT.
A ROBUST COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH MN THIS MORNING, AND APPROACHING THE BRD AREA. THIS
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK, MOVING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL COULD IMPACT DLH, BUT EXPECT
LITTLE IMPACTS AT HIB AND INL. HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG WINDS, AND
VIS/CIG DROPS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT BRD AND HYR, ALTHOUGH A
GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION, WITH BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 34 KNOTS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS.
TONIGHT, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ON SUNDAY, GALE-
FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE APPEARING LIKELY (20-30% CHANCE) FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN THIS RARE POTENTIAL, A
GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO GALES
OF 35 KNOTS, WAVES OF 3-7 FEET WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL FOR GALES. KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY
POTENTIAL UPGRADES TO A GALE WARNING HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148-150.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ121-140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
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