152
FXUS63 KDLH 162105
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
405 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND END BY
EARLY EVENING, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY SUNDAY. A STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO
SAG SOUTH TONIGHT, ALLOWING DRIER DEWPOINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH IN FOR A COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.
SUNDAY THAT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BACK NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE TWIN PORTS AND
THE NORTH SHORE IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES WHICH STRENGTHEN
FOR THE DAYTIME, AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF AN MCS
IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
MOVING GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE BRINGS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH DAKOTA
AND MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED, AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED TOO
FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
GIVING US A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
FOR NOW, DUE TO THE SPREAD IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WE
ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS, BUT ANTICIPATE THESE INCREASING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST, WHICH
SHOULD LEAVE THE NORTHLAND WITH SOME GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. LINGERING STRATUS, MOSTLY MVFR FOR KHYR AND
KBRD, BUT KDLH HAS DIPPED TO IFR. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT AS THE CONVECTION GETS FARTHER EAST AND THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS BEHIND IT ALSO DECREASE. BY 01Z THIS EVENING, ALL SITES
SHOULD BE VFR. WITH RAINFALL THIS MORNING, THERE ARE SIGNS WE
SHOULD HAVE SOME FOG TONIGHT, MOSTLY AT KHYR WHERE I HAVE
INCLUDED SOME MVFR FOG. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KBRD AND KDLH AS
WELL. EAST WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT, AND HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AFTER 07Z FOR KDLH, AND 15Z
FOR KBRD. THE OTHER SITES INCREASE AS WELL, BUT STAY UNDER
20KTS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CREATED A SHORT PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKE, AND WHILE THE WINDS ARE DECREASING,
WAVES REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE
EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WE WILL HAVE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GETTING GALE FORCE
GUSTS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
NEAR THE HEAD OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW, HAVE MAINTAINED
THE GALE WATCH FOR SUNDAY WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LEADING UP TO IT, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE EVENTUALLY
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND ONLY ISSUED A GALE WARNING IF
WE STARTED TO ACTUALLY OBSERVE THOSE GUSTS. WINDS AND WAVES
DECREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND
ANTICIPATE A FEW DAYS OF QUIETER WEATHER ON THE LAKE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148-150.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ121-140>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ143>148-150.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
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