723
FXUS63 KDLH 170546
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1246 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND END BY
EARLY EVENING, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY SUNDAY. A STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO
SAG SOUTH TONIGHT, ALLOWING DRIER DEWPOINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH IN FOR A COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.
SUNDAY THAT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BACK NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE TWIN PORTS AND
THE NORTH SHORE IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES WHICH STRENGTHEN
FOR THE DAYTIME, AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF AN MCS
IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
MOVING GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE BRINGS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH DAKOTA
AND MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED, AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED TOO
FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
GIVING US A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
FOR NOW, DUE TO THE SPREAD IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WE
ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS, BUT ANTICIPATE THESE INCREASING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
A BAND OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE NORTHLAND, AFFECTING BRD AND HYR TAF
SITES. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS INTO THE SUNRISE HOURS BEFORE THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR LIFTING CEILINGS SLOWLY INTO MID-MORNING.
EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE FOR LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE TERMINALS
12-15Z TODAY AND GUST 20-30 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
UPSLOPING ONSHORE FLOW INTO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IS ALREADY
BEING OBSERVED ON SATELLITE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT A PERIOD OF
LOW-MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY
MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS DLH. A PREVAILING GROUP WAS PLACED FOR
THOSE FEW HOURS OF MVFR AT DLH...THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD IS
12-15Z TODAY, BUT KEPT AN HOUR ON EITHER SIDE IN THE TAF FOR
UNCERTAINTY ON ONSET/ENDING TIMES. THIS AFTERNOON, MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND LINGERING
WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS 00-03Z THIS EVENING AND LAST INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CREATED A SHORT PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKE, AND WHILE THE WINDS ARE DECREASING,
WAVES REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE
EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WE WILL HAVE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GETTING GALE FORCE
GUSTS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
NEAR THE HEAD OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW, HAVE MAINTAINED
THE GALE WATCH FOR SUNDAY WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LEADING UP TO IT, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE EVENTUALLY
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND ONLY ISSUED A GALE WARNING IF
WE STARTED TO ACTUALLY OBSERVE THOSE GUSTS. WINDS AND WAVES
DECREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND
ANTICIPATE A FEW DAYS OF QUIETER WEATHER ON THE LAKE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
140>148-150.
GALE WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ121-140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...LE
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