243
FXUS63 KDLH 182333
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
633 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NW
WISCONSIN TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW STORMS IS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WITH COOLER WEEKEND TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS REGION AND SOUTH ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH LITTLE CAPE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR, WE HAVE HAD ONLY A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER SO FAR TODAY. THESE HAVE BEEN MOVING MORE SLOWLY THAN
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING, SO CURRENT TIMING MIGHT BE TOO
FAST AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED THIS EVENING. ALONG WITH THESE
SHOWERS, THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS LINGERING OVER
THE AREA, AND I EXPECT THIS TO BE VERY, VERY SLOW TO CLEAR. IN
FACT, I HAVE IT REMAINING CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
IT CLEARS OUT ON TUESDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE
MOISTURE BENEATH THIS LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG AS WELL. CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT CAN BE HARD
TO GET DENSE FOG WITH STRATUS OVERHEAD BEFORE THE FOG DEVELOPS,
BUT THERE ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS FOR IT.
THE STRATUS MAY KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE, SO NO
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
GIVING US A PERIOD OF QUIETER AND DRIER WEATHER. WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES WE SHOULD THEORETICALLY GET SOME NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE IS GIVING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER,
SO WE MAY END UP KNOCKING DOWN THOSE FORECAST TEMPS ONCE WE SEE
HOW THINGS BEHAVE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SEVERAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO, BUT THE DETAILS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL
AS TIMING HAVE YET TO BE NARROWED DOWN. FOR NOW, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHIFT TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND, AND WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, IT WILL FEEL VERY FALL LIKE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER EVEN FURTHER TO
LIFR UNDER A STABLE AIR MASS. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS ADDED TO THAT, WIDESPREAD PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS. FOG WILL CLEAR IN THE MORNING, AND STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER, MODELS
HAVE BEEN TOO FAST ON DISSIPATING THE STRATUS IN PREVIOUS CASES,
SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ALLOWING OUR WAVES TO ALSO SLOWLY
DIMINISH. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT HAVE DIMINISHED,
AND WILL BE ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AT 4
PM. WIND GUSTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED TO 20 KNOTS OR
LESS THIS AFTERNOON, AND WAVES ARE ALSO DECREASING TO 3 FEET OR
LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS
POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH WINDS OF UNDER 15 KNOTS AND
WAVES OF 1 FOOT OR LESS RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...LE
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