515
FXUS63 KDLH 191155
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
655 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOGGY MORNING WITH SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
- A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
SATELLITE AND RADAR THIS MORNING SHOW A DECAYING MESO VORTEX MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. WE ALSO HAVE AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH VISIBILITIES BEING GREATLY REDUCED AT THE SURFACE DUE
TO DENSE FOG. THE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PORTIONS
OF THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION, THE ARROWHEAD AND DOUGLAS COUNTY.
FOG MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER THAN USUAL DUE TO THE OVERALL
DEPTH OF THE CLOUD WITH MOST GUIDANCE CLEARING IT OUT BY MID
MORNING.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE LATEST RAP MODEL ALSO SHOWS A FEW RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING. WITH THE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILE BEING SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
DRY ALOFT WE MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW:
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS MAY LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TOMORROW AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION AS WE SETTLE INTO A QUIET PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEPART THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT INBOUND
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. TIMING OF THE FRONT IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND LOOKS
TO BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A SMALL CORRIDOR OF
INCREASED INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME
STRONGER BULK SHEAR MAY LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW THE
SPC HAS A MARGINAL (THREAT LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FROM KOOCHICHING
DOWN THROUGH CASS COUNTY.
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE CONTINUED TRAVELS OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES
SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WITH NW WI
POSSIBLY BEING UNDER THE GUN FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHLAND BUT THE CSU ML SEVERE PROBS
HIGHLIGHT AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS ALL OF NW WI.
WEEKEND:
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN 60S. A BIT UNSEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN
FACT, THAT IS ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MIXED WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ENGULFS ALL OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING WITH CEILINGS DOWN IN THE LIFR CATEGORY. MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE FOG SIGNAL A LITTLE LATER WITH EACH RUN LEADING TO
DISPERSION BY LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK FORCING OVER THE REGION MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AS WELL. TONIGHT COULD INTRODUCE ANOTHER STRATUS DECK
WITH FOG. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS A 50% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MN AND A 70% CHANCE FOR NW WI. SPOTTY
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING TOO.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE LARGELY
CLEARING BY 9AM. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHLAND. CAN'T RULE OUT
ANOTHER BATCH OF FOG FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010-012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001-
006>008.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
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