333
FXUS63 KDLH 041653
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1153 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES, TO PARTS
OF EAST- CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATE TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS.
- BREEZY ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH WITH A FEW SPOTS GUSTING AS STRONG
AS 40 MPH.
- COOLER CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER,
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FROST
REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SPOTS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THAT
WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL USHER A RETURN TO WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE WITH
THE CLIPPER TONIGHT, WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
OF MORE STRETCHING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN, BUT DRY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA (NORTH/EAST OF
THE IRON RANGE). THERE WILL BE FROST POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT, BUT
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER MEANS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN A
FROST OCCURRING - BUT A FREEZE (REACHING 32F ACROSS A WIDESPREAD
AREA) IS UNLIKELY. A FEW RECORD COOL DAILY MAX TEMP RECORDS MAY BE
BROKEN (SEE CLIMATE SECTION) BUT LOW TEMPS WILL NOT BE IN JEOPARDY.
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY'S FORECAST IS THE CLIPPER TONIGHT AND THE
BREEZY WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW TOMORROW, OTHERWISE FAIRLY
UNREMARKABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TODAY IS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING, WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING
BEFORE EXITING AND LIFT NORTH OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY FRIDAY. FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT IS WELL ON TRACK, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TRENDING A BIT HIGHER. THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE ATTRIBUTED
TO THE INTENSITY OF THE SEASONABLY POTENT VORT MAX ALOFT LEADING TO
VERY STRONG BROAD-SCALE LIFT AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER WISCONSIN, AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH OR MORE IN A FEW SPOTS.
WHILE NOT SEASONABLY UNUSUAL, HEAVY RAINFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR PONDING/FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS (I.E. WATER ACROSS
SOME RURAL ROADS AND MINOR BRIEF FLOODING IN MORE BUILT-UP AREAS
LIKE HAYWARD). THE CEILING FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LOW DUE
TO THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE CLIPPER - ALMOST A ZERO PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OR MORE, FOR EXAMPLE - BUT AN
INCH OF RAIN OVER A FEW HOURS COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOOD ADVISORY-
LEVEL IMPACTS IN A WORST-CASE SCENARIO. OTHERWISE THERE MAY BE SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT.
RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST TOWARDS DAWN IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, BUT WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE MATURE LOW IN ONTARIO TO NORTH, A WEAK MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND A VORT MAX ALOFT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND
ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD, WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH MAY RESULT IN OFF AND ON LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THOUGH DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE MAY END UP LEADING TO MORE VIRGA THAN PRECIP. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH INCREASING WINDS, GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS WITH PERHAPS A 35-
40 KNOT PEAK GUST POSSIBLE BASED ON THE EXPECTED MIXING AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS FROM GUIDANCE. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
FALL SO FAR WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 40S IN THE MN ARROWHEAD
TO LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE, AND A FEW RECORD COOL MAX TEMPS COULD BE
BROKEN - SEE CLIMATE SECTION.
BECOMING WARMER AND GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH LOW AND LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT, OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER, STRONGER WARM FRONT MAY LIFT EAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
DETERIORATING TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS, LOWEST (IFR) AT BRD, DLH, AND HYR AFTER 00Z TONIGHT, AND
INTENSE RAIN SHOWERS MAY ALSO RESULT IN VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 TO
3 MILES AROUND 03Z TO 08Z, ESPECIALLY AT HYR WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED. WEST WINDS TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KNOTS (STRONGEST AT DLH), WEAKER OVERNIGHT, THEN
BREEZY ON FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS 20-
30 KNOTS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
INCREASING WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS A
CLIPPER MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AS STRONG AS 20-30 KNOTS. GALES
ARE NOT EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR A GALE-FORCE GUST
BEING NORTH OF GRAND MARAIS WHERE THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
GALE-FORCE GUST ON FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND, 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THE PROBABILITY FOR GALES THROUGH THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IS VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT).
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SITES THAT HAVE A FORECAST
WITHIN 3 DEGREES F OF THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LISTED
BELOW:
SEPTEMBER 5:
KDLH: 52/1904 (FORECAST: 54)
KINL: 53/1965 (FORECAST: 53)
KBRD: 57/1962 (FORECAST: 57)
KHIB: 54/2017 (FORECAST: 54)
KASX: 56/1926 (FORECAST: 57)
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>143-146>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ144-
145.
DISCUSSION...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
MARINE...JJM
CLIMATE...JJM
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