326
FXUS63 KDLH 101950
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
250 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.
- CHANCES (30-50%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY, BEGINNING FIRST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER INLAND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS A STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE NORTH SHORE
TERRAIN RIDGE ALSO HELPS TO DEFINE THE MARINE BOUNDARY. THIS
MARINE BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING SOME DENSE MARINE FOG TO MAKE IN
ONSHORE AND TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY FOR SOME MN-61
LOCATIONS NORTH OF TWO HARBORS THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT ARE NOT
WIDESPREAD OR LAST LONG ENOUGH TO AT THIS POINT ISSUE A SHORT-
TERM LAND-BASED FOG ADVISORY.
OVERNIGHT THOUGH, UNDER THE PERSISTENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE,
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MANY PARTS OF
THE NORTHLAND. TWO SEGMENTS OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WERE ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON COVERING THESE EXPECTED VISIBILITIES AROUND OR
LESS THAN 1/4 MILE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST BEGINS FOR
MOST MARINE-ADJACENT ZONES AT 10 PM THIS EVENING AND THE SECOND
FOR INLAND ZONES AT 1 AM TONIGHT. THE END TIME FOR DENSE FOG TO
DISSIPATE OUT IS 10-11AM THURSDAY. ALONGSIDE THE DENSE FOG IS
THE LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN THE UPSLOPE PARTS OF
THE NORTH SHORE AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WEATHER TYPE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A WARM SECTOR MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. AHEAD OF
THE WARM SECTOR THOUGH IS A VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT WILL AID IN
CREATING A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SMALL HAIL. LESS THAN 750 J/KG
OF CAPE IS PROGGED IN DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT
THIS POINT WHICH HELPS TO HIGHLY LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE WESTERN IRON
RANGE NORTHWARD INTO THE RAINY LAKE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. AS
THE VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER, EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO MOVE INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND SCRAPE THE SOUTH SHORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EARLY
AS THE WARMEST AIRMASS SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK (UPPER-70S TO AROUND 80 F INLAND LOCATIONS), A NOTABLE
LAKE BREEZE IS FORECAST TO KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR SHORELINES CLOSER
TO THE LOW-70S.
AN EVEN MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND MAY
BRING THE NEXT SCATTERED STORM CHANCES FOR THE NORTHLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH
BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM KEEPS A WARMER THAN NORMAL (BY 4-8
DEGREES) FORECAST INTO THE MID-SEPTEMBER PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, BUT
LARGELY SOUTH OF MOST AREA TERMINALS. EXPECT A FEW TERMINALS TO
SEE MVFR CEILINGS WITH THOSE RAIN SHOWERS, OTHERWISE JUST
DIURNAL CUMULUS BUILDING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ANOTHER ROUND
OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS AGAIN BEGINNING
03-06Z AND LASTING THROUGH 13-16Z WITH VLIFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS. LINGERING IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS TAF PERIOD AT MOST TERMINALS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
DENSE MARINE FOG CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY LATE MORNING. MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS HAZARD THROUGH THURSDAY 1 PM
CT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING UNDER 20 KNOTS. THE HEAD OF THE LAKE WILL SEE SOME OF
THE STRONGEST LAKE BREEZE THAT COULD BUILD WAVES UP TO 2 FEET.
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND GUST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING FOR COOK, LAKE, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS, CARLTON,
PINE, AITKIN, CROW WING, CASS AND SOUTHERN ITASCA COUNTIES.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ASHLAND, BAYFIELD, DOUGLAS, BURNETT, WASHBURN AND
SAWER COUNTIES.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ121- 140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
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