189
FXUS63 KDLH 120624
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
124 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES IN EFFECT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
- THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF US-2 THIS
MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. STORM CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 10-30%
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL, SUMMER-LIKE, TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S.
- ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO REFORM AGAIN THIS
EVENING FIRST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES, AND THEN MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES (70-80%) OF
SEEING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY, THESE ARE DOUGLAS THROUGH SOUTHERN COOK COUNTIES
WRAPPING AROUND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AN AREA IN ASHLAND AND
BAYFIELD COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THOUGH AND
MAY ALSO EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY. A LIMITING FACTOR THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG COVERAGE COULD BE A WEAKENING
LOW- LEVEL JET ENTER CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT, BUT BE JUST
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT SOME OF THE FOG FORMATION.
OFF THAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FORMED EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN NORTH DAKOTA
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THERE IS A VERY LIMITED
CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT / MAINLY PRE-
DAWN FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL MN BORDERLANDS REGION.
THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD WOULD BE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO BE
WEAKLY SUPPORTED AND UNABLE TO PROMOTE LARGE HAIL GROWTH.
AS THE JET MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY DAYTIME, EXPECT
THOSE LIMITED (20-40%) CHANCES TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND LINGER
LAST IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY EVENING.
BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A SEASONABLY VERY WARM AIR MASS
SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE UPPER-70S TO LOW 80 F AT INLAND LOCATIONS. A NOTABLE LAKE
BREEZE IS FORECAST TO KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR SHORELINES CLOSER TO
THE LOW-70S.
AN EVEN MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND MAY
BRING THE NEXT SCATTERED STORM CHANCES FOR THE NORTHLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH
BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM KEEPS A WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST
INTO THE MID-SEPTEMBER PERIOD THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. AN INCOMING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE MID-NEXT WEEK TO HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND KEEP LOW-END WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS WAS LOCATED OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS AT DLH WAS CREATING
FOG. VISIBILITIES WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AND
AROUND 1/2 MILE THROUGH 14Z. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE
LOW CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD HIB, INL, AND BRD EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY OR MAY NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY FOG. LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR INL AND FARTHER EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS MAY SPREAD AS FAR
SOUTH AS HIB AROUND OR AFTER 14Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING. DLH MAY END UP STUBBORN
AGAIN TODAY AND HOLD ONTO MVFR CEILINGS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
LOW CEILINGS LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN OF DENSE FOG LIKELY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE ONGOING DENSE MARINE FOG ADVISORY WAS AGAIN
EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THIS LIKELY
RETURNING FOG. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO
LIFT THE FOG FIRST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SO THE ADVISORY WAS
SPLIT INTO TWO END TIMES, ONE ON THE SOUTH SHORE ENDING 4 AM
FRIDAY AND THE TWIN PORTS TO NORTH SHORE LATER AT 10 AM FRIDAY.
ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS FUNNELED DOWN THE SOUTHWESTERN ARM OF
THE LAKE LEAD TO NEAR-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST KEEPS AN UPPER-END WIND FORECAST BASED
ON THE GUSTS. SIMILAR WIND CONDITIONS LAST EACH DAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ121-147-148-150.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>146.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...NLY
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