387
FXUS63 KDLH 131745
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
- QUIET WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
- ON-AND-OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUING WARM WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND AGAIN THIS
MORNING. WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER SUNRISE, GIVING WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND QUIET
WEATHER WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER
THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA, WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. THIS
WILL KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NORTHLAND
THIS WEEKEND, WITH MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REINFORCING WARMER
AIR ALOFT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 8-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S AND MID 60S.
SUNDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE RE-ENFORCED
FROM THE EAST, WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. A BAND OF RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA SUNDAY EVENING, BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES, EXPECT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DIMINISH WITH NO SEVERE STORM THREAT.
BROAD TROUGHING WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHLAND. DEEP LAYER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP, PROVIDING MOISTURE AND
LIFT FROM IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH. COULD
SEE A COUPLE DIFFERENT WAVES OF RAIN AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
/EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE AREA, AND SERVING AS THE CATALYST FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
DENSE FOG REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD. FOG FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AS OF ISSUANCE TIME,
THOUGH IT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF KDLH AND WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT KDYT AND KSUW. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS TODAY HAS BROUGHT
SOME MVFR CIELINGS TO KINL AND THE ARROWHEAD, BUT THESE WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN, WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. HAVE
BROUGHT KDLH TO VLIFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS, BUT THE REMAINING SITES
SHOULD GET NO WORSE THAN LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BEFORE
IMPROVING ONCE AGAIN BY 15Z SUNDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KT. THERE'S A ~20% CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KT THAT COULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON. SUNDAY LOOKS SLIGHTLY BREEZIER THAN SATURDAY, WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ001.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...HA
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