958
FXUS63 KDLH 270536
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1236 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MAINLY IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA, WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.
- AFTER THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A
COOLING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT MODEL CONSISTENCY IS
LOW AND CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL CHANCES IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS HELPED
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SUNSHINE SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING MOISTURE
NORTH, MOST OF IT IS CONVERGING IN A BAND EXTENDING FROM KANSAS
NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO MANITOBA, LEAVING THE
NORTHLAND WITH RATHER DRY AIR ALOFT, AS DEPICTED ON THE MPX AND
INL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING, WITH A LARGE WEDGE OF DRY
AIR FROM 700MB UP PAST 500MB. BELOW 700MB THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR THE STRATUS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THE LAST FEW DAYS, WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES OUT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. YESTERDAY, WE HAD A LARGE AREA OF MVFR
STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO
IOWA AND NEBRASKA WHICH OOZED NORTH INTO THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING. TODAY, A LOT OF THAT AREA IS CLEAR INSTEAD,
WITH ONLY SOME STRATUS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT STRATUS MAY BE ADVECTED INTO THE CWA TONIGHT, BUT AM
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING THAT IT STAYS TO OUR WEST, AND HAVE LEFT
THE CLOUD COVER PRETTY LOW OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WINDS NOT DECOUPLING, I DO
NOT EXPECT THE ANY STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS TONIGHT,
AND HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE WITH NO
FOG OVERNIGHT.
THAT PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS IS DRAGGED OUR DIRECTION
AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN
PRAIRIES, WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IT BEGINNING MONDAY,
AND CONTINUING EAST ON TUESDAY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, A POTENT
SHORTWAVE SPLITS OFF FROM THIS FEATURE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST,
LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A COL IN BETWEEN THE MAIN TROUGH
AND THE SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS BEEN THE CAUSE OF THE REDUCTION IN
PRECIPITATION THAT WE HAVE SEEN FROM THE MODELS OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS FOR THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. WITH THAT SAID, WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT RAIN CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LEAVING US MOSTLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. THE COOLEST DAY WILL
BE TUESDAY, WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
THE SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY WEDNESDAY, TAKING FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH IT. HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE PUSHING A SHORTWAVE
OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
THERE ISN'T A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FEED FOR IT, AND THERE IS
GENERALLY POOR CONSISTENCY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER A LOW-LEVEL JET TO 40 KNOTS KEEPS LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN SOME TAFS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THESE
WINDS BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM A WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING,
EXPECT DAYTIME GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS THAT REMAIN ELEVATED FROM
5 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT TOO. A BAND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
MOVES INTO NORTH- CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND WILL FIRST
IMPACT THE BRAINERD LAKES TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR SKY COVER IN THIS SAME REGION
TOO BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DESPITE INCREASING WINDS INLAND, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS DUE TO STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE, THOUGH THERE MAY
BE BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AS WAVES BUILD ALONG THE NORTH SHORE, AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...LE
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