027
FXUS63 KDLH 270854
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
354 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY LATE TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MAINLY IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA, WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT MODEL CONSISTENCY IS
LOW AND CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL CHANCES IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS CREATES A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE US NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS
RESULTING IN A NOTABLE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING.
AS GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD TODAY, PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FIRST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY
AS A RESULT. WITH THE SLOWLY MOISTENING COLUMN INTO THIS
EVENING, RAIN SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE BRAINERD
LAKES TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS REGION FIRST TODAY FROM 4-8 PM AND
THEN SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT
TO EARLY TUESDAY. ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES TO BORDERLANDS REGION OF NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A SHARP GRADIENT IN
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THIS TIME PERIOD, CURRENTLY ALONG THE US
HWY 53 CORRIDOR FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE MN/WI
STATELINE REGION. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH THIS SHARP GRADIENT IN RAIN CUTOFF EVEN
FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST SO THIS WILL
BE MONITORED OVER FOLLOWING FORECASTS. THE UPSLOPING MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH SHORE HIGH TERRAIN UNDER A LOW-LEVEL
DRY LAYER AND SUFFICIENT NEAR-SURFACE LAPSE RATES CREATE A
FORECAST FOR 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE NEAR TWO HARBORS
AND NORTHWARD TUESDAY. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID
DRIZZLE MAY ACCUMULATE FROM THAT SETUP.
THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A DECAYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND EASTWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE HELPS TO LIMIT
ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ALSO, THE ACCOMPANYING AIRMASS CHANGE WILL CREATE A
PATTERN OF COOLING TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FROM MID- WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THIS WILL ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LATE 40S FOR
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC
AIDS IN KEEPING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS PROGGED ON DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM-RANGE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE TO WRAP INTO THAT LARGER CYCLONIC FLOW, RAIN
SHOWERS ARE REINTRODUCED BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WHILE RAINFALL
IS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX (30-40% CHANCE) MAY EVEN
GIVE WAY TO ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACES (20% CHANCE).
OVERALL THERE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO FORM, BUT A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION BEING FAVORED FOR THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY VERSUS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART NEAR THE BRAINERD
LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER A LOW-LEVEL JET TO 40 KNOTS KEEPS LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN SOME TAFS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THESE
WINDS BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM A WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING,
EXPECT DAYTIME GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS THAT REMAIN ELEVATED FROM
5 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT TOO. A BAND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
MOVES INTO NORTH- CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND WILL FIRST
IMPACT THE BRAINERD LAKES TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR SKY COVER IN THIS SAME REGION
TOO BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
GUST TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE FAR NORTH SHORE LATER TODAY AND
LASTING INTO TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT FROM LATE EVENING
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT
TUESDAY FOR LSZ140.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
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