807
FXUS63 KDLH 272018
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
318 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT, BUT HALT ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS
BEFORE REACHING THE ARROWHEAD OR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION RETURN LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR RETURNS INDICATE SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN, BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND.
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND IS EXPERIENCING GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS,
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 60. CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN, BUT SO FAR REMAIN
WEST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND BRAINERD.
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MID SOUTH AND THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER MN.
PWATS WILL REACH ABOUT 225 PERCENT OF NORMAL ALONG THE FRONT,
ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING. STEADIER SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING, THEN SPREAD EAST AND
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MN. THE BAND WILL THEN HALT ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS DUE TO
THE STALLING OF THE FRONT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IN WI FROM THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN QUEBEC. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND THEIR ENSEMBLES, HI-RES CAMS, AND AI MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW DESPITE SOME RECENT SHIFTING OF THE BAND, SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MN AND REDUCED IN WI WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN RAIN
POTENTIAL EXPECTED NEAR I-35. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WEST OF INL AND BRD, THEN RAPIDLY
DROP OFF TO MINIMAL AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST MN AND NORTHWEST WI. AS
THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONJOIN WITH THE
HIGH IN QUEBEC. THIS SHOULD END THE RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE MIDWEEK WITH PEEKS OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. BY THURSDAY, A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DRAGGED SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BEHIND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT LIKELY TO BRING MUCH STEADY PRECIPITATION, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, A FEW SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SNOWFLAKES
AT TIMES, BUT THE LACK OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION WOULD LEAD TO
VERY LOW ACCUMULATION RISK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
RAINFALL HAS TRENDED TO THE WEST, SO BASED ON THE LATEST DATA
DLH SHOULD REMAIN DRY. DID ALSO REPLACE THE VCSH WITH A PROB30
FOR RAIN.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THERE WAS A SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
RAIN TO KINL AND KBRD, BUT COULD MISS KHIB AND SHOULD MISS KDLH.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS
DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ALONG THE FAR NORTH
SHORE AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT NORTH OF GRAND MARAIS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT
TUESDAY FOR LSZ140.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF/WFO MPX
AVIATION...WFO MPX
MARINE...BORGHOFF/WFO MPX
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