173
FXUS63 KDLH 280543
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERSIST AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION RETURN LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR RETURNS INDICATE SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN, BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND.
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND IS EXPERIENCING GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS,
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 60. CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN, BUT SO FAR REMAIN
WEST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND BRAINERD.
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MID SOUTH AND THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER MN.
PWATS WILL REACH ABOUT 225 PERCENT OF NORMAL ALONG THE FRONT,
ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING. STEADIER SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING, THEN SPREAD EAST AND
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MN. THE BAND WILL THEN HALT ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS DUE TO
THE STALLING OF THE FRONT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IN WI FROM THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN QUEBEC. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND THEIR ENSEMBLES, HI-RES CAMS, AND AI MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW DESPITE SOME RECENT SHIFTING OF THE BAND, SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MN AND REDUCED IN WI WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN RAIN
POTENTIAL EXPECTED NEAR I-35. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WEST OF INL AND BRD, THEN RAPIDLY
DROP OFF TO MINIMAL AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST MN AND NORTHWEST WI. AS
THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONJOIN WITH THE
HIGH IN QUEBEC. THIS SHOULD END THE RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE MIDWEEK WITH PEEKS OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. BY THURSDAY, A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DRAGGED SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BEHIND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT LIKELY TO BRING MUCH STEADY PRECIPITATION, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, A FEW SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SNOWFLAKES
AT TIMES, BUT THE LACK OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION WOULD LEAD TO
VERY LOW ACCUMULATION RISK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A BAND OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD WEST OF A LINE FROM
MCGREGOR TO GRAND RAPIDS TO ORR. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REACH AS
FAR EAST AS HIB AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY, BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY
WEST OF THAT TERMINAL. EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS TODAY IN THIS
REGION OF NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA ALSO AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY
THAT LASTS INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE ARROWHEAD, ALONG WITH VERY
LOW CHANCES (10-20%) FOR DRIZZLE ON THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN
RIDGE AND FURTHER INLAND. AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE, INCLUDING
DLH, A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WILL BE
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LATE
AFTERNOON WIND INCREASE THAT REMAINS LOCALLY GUSTY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ALONG THE FAR NORTH
SHORE AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT NORTH OF GRAND MARAIS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
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