149
FXUS63 KDLH 281135
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
635 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION RETURN
THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER
MIDWEST TO MID-SOUTH REGION IS CREATING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER MINNESOTA PRESENTLY. LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CREATING A PERSISTENT
REGION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL FOR NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY A 20%
CHANCE OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS MAKING IT TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE CENTRAL IRON RANGE. ALL OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN REMAINS DRY IN THIS PATTERN. ONSHORE
UPSLOPING EASTERLY WINDS WITH A DRY CAP ALOFT AS SEEN ON
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEPS A 10-20% CHANCE OF DRIZZLE FOR
THE THE NORTH SHORE NORTH AND EAST OF SILVER BAY TODAY. FROM
THESE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST TODAY, EXPECT A
NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN SOME COUNTIES. THOSE UNDER THE
PRECIPITATION SEE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-40S
WHILE EVEN 10-20 MILES AWAY COULD SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-50S
TODAY. THE WARMEST SPOTS ARE FORECAST FOR I-35 TO US HWY 53
CORRIDORS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH ROTATES INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, EXPECT A QUICK DOWNTURN
IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH IN THIS TIME PERIOD.
IN ALL, ADDITIONAL FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE-HALF TO
THREE-QUARTER INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY IN THE GREATER
BRAINERD LAKES AREA TO KOOCHICHING COUNTY.
AFTER A DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO CREATE A
LOCALIZED AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW ROTATES THROUGH MEAN BROAD CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH ASSOCIATED NORTH PACIFIC
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A NOTABLE PUSH OF
COOLER AIR DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THAT EASTERN US LOW PRESSURE. THIS IS A TIME PERIOD OF LIKELY
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE GLOBAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY SETS UP INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER
CONTINUED SHOWER PATTERN WITH WEAK SMALL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A BAND OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST THREE-QUARTERS OF THIS TAF PERIOD WEST
OF A LINE FROM MCGREGOR TO GRAND RAPIDS TO ORR. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS HIB AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY, BUT WILL BE
PRIMARILY WEST OF THAT TERMINAL. EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS TODAY
IN THIS REGION OF NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA ALSO AROUND DAYBREAK
TODAY THAT LASTS INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS TODAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT FROM THE BRAINERD
LAKES TO ARROWHEAD, ALONG WITH VERY LOW CHANCES (10-20%) FOR
DRIZZLE ON THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE AND FURTHER INLAND. AT
THE HEAD OF THE LAKE, INCLUDING DLH, A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WILL BE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LATE AFTERNOON WIND INCREASE THAT
REMAINS LOCALLY GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT MAY OBSERVE FOG.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS PERSIST IN THE FAR NORTH
SHORE THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AND SHIFT EASTERLY
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING WAVES THOUGH FOR THE
GREATER GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE WATERS REMAIN FORECAST
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS THOUGH WHICH KEEPS THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 4 PM TODAY. BY MID-AFTERNOON
TODAY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
ARM OF THE LAKE. THESE WOULD AFFECT THE TWIN PORTS INTO LATE
EVENING TODAY AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY SHORT-TERM
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 15
KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFT SOUTHERLY THURSDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
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