782
FXUS63 KDLH 290523
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LIGHT RAIN IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO THIS
EVENING.
- QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY
- LIGHT RAIN MAY RETURN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
HAS BEEN CAUSING A ~NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF RAIN FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO BRAINERD TODAY. THIS REALLY ISN'T EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH
FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION, BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
CONTINUES CREEPING SLOWLY NORTHEAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN AND RAIN IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO LET UP GOING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS THOUGH, AND
DEFINITELY A STRIPE OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND AS SOME CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, ONSHORE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS KEEPING SOME LOW STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS OVER
THE ARROWHEAD, WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND PERHAPS SPREAD
FURTHER SOUTH/WEST WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST/NORTHEASTERLY.
LITTLE IS EXPECTED FOR IMPACTS EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT OF DRIZZLE AT
TIMES.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS ALOFT WITH A
BRIEF SURFACE HIGH BRINGING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND QUIET WEATHER.
GOING INTO THURSDAY, A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW MOVER, GIVING US
A COUPLE DAYS OF RAIN CHANCES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MORE LIKELY (~30-50% CHANCE)
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS LOW MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST, SOME COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH. A BIT OF
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850-HPA
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING AND LAKE SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 10C (JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BE LOW-
END FAVORABLE). IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF SOME GRAUPEL OR WET
SNOWFLAKES MIX IN AS WELL, THOUGH ANY WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS SEEM
UNLIKELY (JUST A BIT TOO WARM). RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT OVERALL WITH MOST PLACES PICKING UP LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH AND MAYBE A FEW TENTHS ON THE HIGH END.
THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
RIDGING IS LOOKING LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALOFT ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE, MOST LIKELY LEADING TO SOME QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND
(OR AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON). SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY WARM
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT, BUT THAT WILL BE COMING OFF OF HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S ON SATURDAY, SO WE'LL BE REMAINING SEASONABLY COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS AROUND FREEZING.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT COULD PASS
THROUGH AROUND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN. FOLLOWING THAT, WE MAY GET INTO A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW SETUP,
PERHAPS WITH SOME SCATTERED WRAPAROUND SHOWERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HANDLING OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DISPARATE FIELDS OF EITHER FOG OR STRATUS THAT EXPAND, CONTRACT,
AND MOVE AROUND. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD IN TAF CONDITIONS, BUT
IT IS A VERY WIDE ROAD, SO LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL. THERE ARE
DEFINITELY SIGNALS FOR IFR FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD
OVERNIGHT WITH STILL SOME SIGNAL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT
SIDED WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC APPROACH FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
WINDS REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT TONIGHT, THEN TURNING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN UP THIS EVENING, REMAINING
GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS
DECREASING FROM AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 KT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE, THEN BECOME
BRIEFLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH. THERE IS A 30
TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...JDS
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