819
FXUS63 KDLH 291118
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
618 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN, MOSTLY
JUST DRIBBLES, STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LAKE-
EFFECT SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES OR SNOW PELLETS ON THE SOUTH
SHORE.
- THIS BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK THOUGH WE'LL BE
WARMER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
AFTER A CLOUDY (AND LOCALLY FOGGY) START FOR SOME, WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE A QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY FOR THE NORTHLAND AS WE SIT
IN A BRIEF CALM PATCH BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE. THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT
AMONG SHORT TERM MODELS ON HANDLING MOISTURE THIS MORNING AND
TODAY WITH SOME PERSISTING THE LOW CLOUDS, BUT IN THIS FORECAST
I WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC TRENDING TOWARDS THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING, THERE'S SOME OUT THERE, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AND
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINES...YET.
OUR NEXT WEATHER-MAKER IS SET TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN BACK TO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR LIGHT RAIN
(EMPHASIZING LIGHT SINCE IT WILL JUST BE DRIBBLES) WILL BE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY, COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH.
THIS COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR COULD TRIGGER SOME LAKE-ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT MIGHT EVEN GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SNOW PELLETS OR WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION. OVERALL, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, WITH MOST PLACES
SEEING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. AFTER ANY LINGERING MORNING
SHOWERS, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING A RETURN TO QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL, WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOW
TO MID-40S WARMING INTO THE MID-40S AND LOW-50S BY SUNDAY, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. ANOTHER
QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW. I WOULDN'T BE TOO
SURPRISED TO SEE THIS PATTERN OF WEAK SYSTEMS CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HANDLING OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DISPARATE FIELDS OF EITHER FOG OR STRATUS THAT EXPAND, CONTRACT,
AND MOVE AROUND. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD IN TAF CONDITIONS, BUT
IT IS A VERY WIDE ROAD, SO LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNALS FOR IFR FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY BUT SIDED WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC APPROACH FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
MARINERS ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CAN EXPECT CONTINUED QUIET
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY
COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ON
THURSDAY, TURNING BRIEFLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN BECOMING
VARIABLE AS A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LOOKING
AHEAD, BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...WOLFE
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