589
FXUS63 KDLH 300027
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
727 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
- LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINIMAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS AND NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WARM UP A BIT SUNDAY/MONDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK AND
OCCASIONAL SNOWFLAKES CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
TONIGHT, IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM. CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL IN CONJUNCTION
WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY, LOW STRATUS NEAR
IRONWOOD, MI, SHOULD EXPAND SOUTHWEST WITH TIME AND BUILD DOWN
INTO DENSE FOG AT THE SURFACE IN MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS POINT TO THE LOW VISIBILITIES
EXPANDING QUICKLY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCATIONS WHERE
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING COULD ALSO SEE
FREEZING FOG DEVELOP, WHICH COULD CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS, SIDEWALKS, AND OTHER SURFACES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
PLENTY OF CLOUDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON FROM A REMNANT CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY, BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF AREAS WHERE SUNSHINE IS PREVALENT
AS WELL. THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY, AND
MOST LIKELY WILL STICK AROUND INTO TONIGHT. IN FACT, SOME SHORT
RANGE CAMS SUGGEST THAT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW COULD POP UP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A BIT OF
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES ARE MOST LIKELY
TO CLEAR AND RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES WILL BE MORE FAVORED.
DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE, WITH PROBABILITIES UP AROUND 50-70%
FOR A BROAD AREA IN INTERIOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING, BUT I DON'T HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE THEM RIGHT NOW SINCE THE COVERAGE OF
THE DENSE FOG MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINES.
A CLIPPER WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN FROM THE WEST GOING INTO
THURSDAY, AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THURSDAY FOR SOME PLACES. AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH FRIDAY, COVERAGE OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, BUT WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 0.5" AND
GENERALLY WEAK LIFT, ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PRETTY LOW (LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST). THE AIR
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY COOL (850-HPA TEMPS AROUND -2 TO
-5C), SO IT'S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT SOME SNOW PELLETS OR EVEN WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD BE "CONVERSATIONAL
SNOW" AND IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM AT THE SURFACE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. IT WILL BE MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME WET FLAKES DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AS WELL. SOME LAKE-ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL, BUT
EVEN THERE, ANY SNOW ISN'T EXPECTED TO STICK.
SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, ENDING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. THEN, FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY GOING INTO SUNDAY. NOTICEABLY WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IS LOOKING LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WE
GET SOME BRIEF RIDGING. SOME BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. ON MONDAY, ANOTHER CLIPPER IS LOOKING LIKELY
TO PASS THROUGH. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE ANOTHER MOISTURE-STARVED
QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM, BRINGING JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOME AREAS.
FLOW BECOMES GENERALLY ZONAL NEXT WEEK, AND A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MAY
BRING PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES (MAINLY RAIN, BUT SOME
SNOWFLAKES CAN'T BE RULED OUT LATER IN THE WEEK). TEMPERATURES ARE
LOOKING TO BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS GOING AT HIB AND
BRD INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD, INCLUDING DLH.
ALSO, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT
HIB TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT POTENTIAL AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF. CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT DLH AND HIB, BUT THE FOG
POTENTIAL AT THESE TWO TERMINALS WOULD BE HIGHEST AT DLH.
WIDESPREAD FOG, LIKELY DENSE, IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO MID-THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING, INCLUDING HYR. VISIBILITY IMPROVES BY LATE MORNING,
WITH ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SPRINKLE/LIGHT RAIN CHANCES (10-40%
CHANCES) APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCOMING ALBERTA CLIPPER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, AND MAY HAVE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIX IN THURSDAY NIGHT. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 10 TO
15 KT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SPEED GOING INTO
SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
WHICH MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. WHILE LESS
LIKELY, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SOME WIND GUSTS THAT COULD
REACH GALE CRITERIA, MAINLY BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS AND GRAND PORTAGE
IN THE SAME TIME PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5 FT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...ROTHSTEIN
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...JDS
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