692
FXUS63 KDLH 300740
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
240 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING COULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY
COMMUTE.
- ANOTHER WARM-UP ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 50S.
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ON LAKE SUPERIOR AND RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING, WHICH COULD CREATE TRICKY TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE NEAR THE
GROUND ARE PROVIDING THE PERFECT INGREDIENTS FOR THIS FOG. THIS
FOG IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND CLEAR OUT BY LATE MORNING,
LEADING TO IMPROVING VISIBILITY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
AFTER THE FOG CLEARS, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES, POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. ON FRIDAY, A SEPARATE, SLOW-MOVING AREA OF ENERGY WILL
SPREAD MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MOISTURE, WITH MOST PLACES SEEING LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF RAIN. BECAUSE THE AIR WILL BE QUITE COOL JUST ABOVE
OUR HEADS, THIS RAIN MAY MIX WITH WET SNOWFLAKES OR SNOW PELLETS
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL ONLY BE "CONVERSATIONAL SNOW" AND WON'T STICK, AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE TOO WARM.
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
A NOTICEABLE WARM-UP TO END THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THIS WARMTH WILL COME WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WINDS. A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN THESE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND EXPECTED
LOW HUMIDITY ON MONDAY IS ALSO RAISING CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, FORECAST
MODELS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL ALSO SEE A SERIES OF SMALL, FAST-MOVING
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH, BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
A CRUMMY NIGHT FOR FLYING WITH PLENTY OF VLIFR FOG POTENTIAL.
WHILE IT CURRENTLY DOESN'T COVER ALL TAF SITES, THE AREA OF FOG
WILL BE EXPANDING OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS POUNDING MOST AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF KINL. WHILE SOME OF THIS COULD BE LOW STRATUS, OBS
SUGGEST +FG WILL BE PREVALENT. AFTER THIS BURNS OFF IN THE LATE
MORNING, THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE VFR WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ON LAKE SUPERIOR THOUGH NOT CERTAIN ON
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY CALM TODAY. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WATER. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY
REACHING 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY, EXCEPT GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS NEAR THE APOSTLES.
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS DUE
TO A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH, WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION, CREATING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
WE ARE EXPECTING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT TO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD WAVES
THAT COULD EXCEED 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MINNESOTA NORTH
SHORE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE,
THOUGH LESS LIKELY (<10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS),
THAT WIND GUSTS IN THAT SAME AREA COULD REACH GALE FORCE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010-018-
019-025-026-033>038.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...WOLFE
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