109
FXUS63 KDLH 302347
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
647 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF PASSING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. A
FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
- A FEW MORE CHANCES AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON/OFF THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
A SLOW MOVING CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MEANDER
DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL
EXPANSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (MOSTLY RAIN BUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES
COULD POP IN HERE AND THERE) INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH FURTHER
COVERAGE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS TURNING TO COME
NORTHEAST OFF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD GIVE A SLIGHT LAKE EFFECT BOOST TO
NW WI, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS IT RUNS OUT OF MOISTURE AND THE LOW MOVES OUT OF
OUR AREA. EXPECT A CHILLIER MORNING SATURDAY AS THAT LOW PULLING
AWAY SHOULD MAKE FOR DECENT CAA INTO THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE WEEKEND TO MOVE BACK ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK AS A COUPLE SYSTEMS PULL
WARMER AIR NORTH AND THEN WEAK RIDGING KEEPS THAT AIR AROUND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY
DOESN'T APPEAR TO HAVE TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT PLENTY OF
GOOD SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP AND GET SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH MOVING. GUSTS UP
TO 25 TO 35MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, WITH GALES
POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MOST LIKELY
(20-35%) OVER THE BORDERLAND AND THE MN ARROWHEAD. MIN RH COULD
QUICKLY FALL IN THE AFTERNOONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY COMBINE
WITH SOME STILL BREEZY WINDS TO LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER,
ALONG WHICH A COUPLE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS COULD PROPAGATE, BRINGING
SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE VFR AND MVFR FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WEAK ASCENT WILL YIELD A
ZONE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS. A BETTER ORGANIZED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SAG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA FRIDAY SAND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLDER AIR. THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GROUND AND 850 MB SHOULD BE
LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRIDAY.
A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN AT TIMES. THE PRESENCE OF SNOW WOULD
DROP VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, POSSIBLY INTO
IFR CATEGORY FOR SHORT PERIODS (LESS THAN 30 MINUTES PER
INSTANCE). HOWEVER OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT THE TIMING OF WHEN
SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS IS LOW AND THUS HAVE
OMITTED THEM FROM THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY, A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM NE TO SW
DOWN THE WESTERN ARM OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECTING NE WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 5
FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS STAY NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH, THEN TURNING NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WAVE
ACTION TO QUIET DOWN. A SYSTEM WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR QUICKLY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND GALES COULD BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
MORNING SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING
ACROSS THE LAKE, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER UP THE NORTH SHORE YOU
GO.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...LEVENS
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