192
FXUS63 KDLH 311128
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
628 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY FROM A PASSING
COLD FRONT WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- THERE WILL BE A COUPLE QUICK CLIPPERS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND MID WEEK.
- STRONG WINDS LATE WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST,
LEADING TO WEAK CAA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MORE ENHANCED LINE COMPARED TO SCATTERED CELLS
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. TONIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES
COOL AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. HOWEVER, AIR
ALOFT WILL BECOME DRY JUST AS QUICKLY SO THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH
ICE ALOFT TO FORM SNOW. EITHER WAY, NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED, AND MOST WILL GET ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION EXCEPT
WHERE THE ENHANCED LINE MOVES SOUTHWEST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, SAVE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES, WHICH MAY LINGER FOR AN
ADDITIONAL FEW HOURS INTO THE LATE MORNING.
A CLIPPER WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN
CANADA, AND WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS HOVERING AROUND 50
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL REACH US SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON THE
SPECIFICS OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THEY DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND
THEREFORE THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IT WILL PRODUCE.
HOWEVER, MORE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE ECMWF THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL FORM SHORTLY AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION SIMILAR TO THE LATE WEEKEND CLIPPER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR MOST OF TODAY. CURRENT FOGGY CONDITIONS AT HYR WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, LASTING INTO MID MORNING. VISIBILITIES
WILL PRIMARILY BE IFR, BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO VLIFR. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME PROB30S
TO REFLECT THE TIME FRAME MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIPITATION, IF
ANY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT
FOR HYR, SO REFLECTED THAT CHANCE IN A PROB30. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 15 KTS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND INCREASE AS A
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE WINDS
SHOULD ONLY REACH AROUND 20 KTS, WAVES EXCEEDING 4 FT ARE
EXPECTED AROUND THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND SAXON HARBOR. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
THESE ELEVATED WAVES. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME MAY
LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR LSZ148-150.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
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