348
FXUS63 KDLH 311904
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
204 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF PASSING SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY TURNING NORTHWEST
INTO MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
- A FEW MORE CHANCES AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON/OFF THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND
A COUPLE SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN AT TIMES. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
COMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT MORE CONSTANT
RAIN AND A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE SOUTH
SHORE. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH MORE CAA INTO SATURDAY WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A CHILLY OVERNIGHT AND A CONTINUATION OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. DRIER AIR AND LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD TURN OFF ANY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY
DOESN'T APPEAR TO HAVE TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT PLENTY OF
GOOD SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP AND GET SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH MOVING FAST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 35MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST, WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD
FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING, MOST LIKELY (20-40%) OVER THE
BORDERLAND AND THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO NW WI. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 30-40MPH ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
MUCH DRIER AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MINIMUM RH COULD QUICKLY FALL IN THE AFTERNOONS AND COULD
COMBINE WITH BREEZY WINDS TO LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY MONDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, ALONG WHICH A COUPLE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS
COULD PROPAGATE, BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. A DEEPER TROUGH COULD DEVELOP LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE'S A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THAT MIGHT DEVELOP INTO.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN. THIS SET UP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS START TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OVERCAST SKIES WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
NE WINDS CONTINUE TO PICK UP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2
TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND SOUTH SHORE. WINDS STAY BECOME NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WAVE
ACTION TO QUIET DOWN. A SYSTEM WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR QUICKLY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND GALES COULD BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
MORNING SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING
ACROSS THE LAKE, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER UP THE NORTH SHORE YOU GO.
WINDS THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY INTO MONDAY, STAYING STRONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALES CONTINUING. WE'VE OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE AND OUTER APOSTLES TO SAXON HARBOR
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE
HIGHEST, BUT DEPENDING ON FORECAST TRENDS THIS MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED TO MORE NEARSHORE ZONES.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ140>142-148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ148-150.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...LEVENS
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