456
FXUS63 KDLH 011730
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- WINDY CONDITIONS AND A CLIPPER EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER.
- A COUPLE MORE CLIPPERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
THE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
DEPART TO THE SOUTH AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
GLANCES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
FETCHING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
SHORE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST AND THE SHOWERS
WILL CEASE IN THE AFTERNOON IN IRON COUNTY. A COOL, DRIER DAY IS
IN STORE FOR THE REST OF TODAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, THOUGH
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.
SUNDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF
THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADA
BORDER. AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TIGHTEN, AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OCCASIONALLY REACHING TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS, REACHING THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE MAJORITY OF
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES,
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HAVE
DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA, AND SOME SHOWERS COULD FALL AS VIRGA
OR JUST SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE SURFACE. ONLY A LITTLE MORE
THAN A TRACE OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS CLIPPER.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT EARLY MONDAY, AND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. WHILE
WIDESPREAD WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY, CAA DOWN THE
NORTH SHORE TERRAIN COULD LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
ONCE AGAIN BEFORE DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST.
GLOBAL MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THE LONG TERM, WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BUT, THERE ARE SIGNALS
FOR A COUPLE MORE CLIPPERS IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
COMPLICATED CLOUD PATTERN OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING
STRATUS DECK OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MN AND SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
POPULATING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. CLOUD BASES CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
PATTERN UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ALOFT.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN TONIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR BECOMING PROBLEMATIC IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS PAINTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS WILL MOST LIKELY MANIFEST
AS VIRGA.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
WINDS AND WAVES ARE DECREASING OUT OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING,
THOUGH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH SHORE. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL CAUSE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO INCREASE ON
SUNDAY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS HAVE INCREASED SINCE
THE LAST FORECAST, AND PROBABILITIES FOR GALES HAVE INCREASED
ACROSS ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS. THEREFORE, ALL OF WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GALE WATCH. A COLD FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS, AND CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES FOR GALES ON MONDAY ARE
DECREASING, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ121-140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...KML
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