023
FXUS63 KDLH 060547
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1147 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
- RAIN AND WINTRY MIX CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
LINGER INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
- COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AND LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WAS LEADING TO BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
WELL. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S, BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING
IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL PUT A CAP ON HOW
MUCH COOLING CAN OCCUR.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY AND THEN ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
40S. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS CANADA THROUGH THE DAY, BUT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO
THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX
IN WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND KEEP CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND WINTRY MIX SHOWERS IN PLACE. THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA INTO PINE AND BURNETT COUNTIES MAY GET INTO THE DRY SLOT OF
THE SYSTEM AND NOT SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME AT
ALL. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN,
SNOW AND WINTRY MIX SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE REGION, ASIDE FROM
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE WINDS BACK WESTERLY AND TURN
THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE OFF. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO MIDDLE 40S.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL SPILL IN FROM THE NORTH STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
AFTER FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL DIVE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
ILLINOIS. WHILE THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THE CLIPPER
WELL TO OUR SOUTH, SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE LOOKS TO BE DECENT SATURATION ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN
ADDITION TO ANOTHER POOL OF COLD AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
PRETTY LARGE SFC-850 DELTA T VALUES WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL IN
THE 40S AND 850 TEMPS IN THE MINUS TEENS. THIS WILL GET THE LAKE
EFFECT MACHINE GOING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND MAY
LEAD TO SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES. PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS HAS RISEN TO AROUND 40 TO 60% WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 2" RIGHT BEHIND AT 30 TO 50%,
HIGHEST ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL IRON COUNTY SNOWBELTS. ANOTHER
CLIPPER MAY AFFECT THE REGION HEADING INTO MID-WEEK WITH LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY LINGERING DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 30S
AND 40S FOR HIGHS BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT INL. LIGHT WINDS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WILL
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA, MAINLY
AFFECTING INL AND POSSIBLY HIB WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. HYR AND
DLH MAY SEE SOME RAIN WITH NO REDUCTIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A
WARM FRONT WILL SET UP NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY AS
WINDS BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE MORNING THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
BY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FRIDAY MAY LEAD
TO CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...BJH
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