004
FXUS63 KDLH 061758
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1158 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION RESUMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCOMING WEAK SYSTEM AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A COUPLE INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE.
- TEMPERATURES WARM NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH
MID WEEK AND BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL JUST SIT UP NEAR HUDSON BAY AND
MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL SPIN AROUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS START OUT DRY TODAY NEAR
THE SURFACE AS A CLIPPER MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, THOUGH THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH FOR MOST. ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR
INLAND AREAS AND THE TWIN PORTS. FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON, WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF LAKE SUPERIOR FROM WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH THE CLIPPER'S
MOISTURE, SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES OVER THE LAKE, AND POSSIBLY
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITH NORTH SHORE TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR POINT OF THE ARROWHEAD. HIGHER LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TOTALS TO AROUND A TENTH IS EXPECTED, AND SOME
SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AS TEMPERATURES DROP THIS EVENING. A TRACE
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY STICK AS WELL OVERNIGHT BEFORE MELTING
IN THE MORNING.
FLOW WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH AS THE CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH, AND THE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IN THE ARROWHEAD WILL
DISSIPATE BUT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AS A COLD AIR
MASS MOVES OVER. WHAT WILL START OUT AS RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW AS CAA CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER, AT THE SAME
TIME AS THE DECREASING TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN
ALOFT, WHICH MAY LIMIT SNOW PRODUCTION. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY IN FAR NORTHERN IRON COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20
AND EVEN TEENS.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN SATURDAY EVENING, TURNING
BACK ON THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND BRINGING
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ARROWHEAD. MUCH STARKER
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE AIR AND LAKE WATER AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNOWFALL
RATES, AND WILL LAST INTO LATE SUNDAY BEFORE DRY AIR MOVES IN
AND CUTS OFF PRECIPITATION. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH
WITH THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES (>10) WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLUFFY
SNOW, AS OPPOSED TO WET, HEAVY SNOW THAT WE SEE IN THE
TRANSITION SEASONS. MODEL ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL, BUT THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF 1 INCH OR MORE IN
NORTHERN ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES FROM THIS LAKE EFFECT.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES, A RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE BACK INTO THE 40S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER RAIN
SYSTEM IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A
CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH FROM SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY GRADUALLY. LOW CLOUDS (MAINLY
MVFR) WILL MOVE IN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. A FEW FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMALLY IMPACTED. INL WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BIT OF LLWS AT HYR THIS EVENING
AS WELL.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
I OPTED TO ISSUE SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE APOSTLES
TO SAXON HARBOR AND ALSO AROUND GRAND PORTAGE THIS EVENING. THE
WINDOW FOR 25 KT GUSTS AND WAVES UP TO 4 FT WILL BE SHORT, AND
THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ONLY IN EFFECT FROM 00Z THROUGH
06Z. AFTER THAT, WINDS CALM DOWN BRIEFLY, THEN INCREASE FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND PASSING LOW PRESSURE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR LSZ140-148-150.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
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