071
FXUS63 KDLH 070553
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1153 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE ARROWHEAD TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- COLD WEATHER MOVES IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WARM UP A BIT NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
CLOUDS ABOUND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING CLIPPER
SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING
SYNOPTIC LIFT IS EXPECTED GOING INTO THIS EVENING, WITH AN AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW) EXPECTED TO CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING UP THERE AND CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST, AND
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE NEAR-SURFACE DRY AIR CAN BE
ERODED EARLY ENOUGH SUCH THAT SOME OF THIS COULD MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ARE
AROUND 30-50% AND UP TO AROUND 20% FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW UP
AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD IN THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN. ALL
SAID, THE "WORST CASE SCENARIO" FOR THIS EVENING WOULD BE A
SLUSHY 1-2", WHILE THE MOST LIKELY CASE WILL BE A LIGHT COATING
TO JUST UNDER AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT PLACES NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
GOING INTO FRIDAY, WE'LL HAVE OUR CLIPPER MOVING EAST AND WE'LL GET
SOME BREEZY WRAPAROUND NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL BE
SOME RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT. WE MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH AS A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
ALOFT. IN ADDITION, EXPECT SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (UP TO
~20 MPH) AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THE LAKE-EFFECT
MACHINE IS EXPECTED TO START UP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AS
850-HPA TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW -5C DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
A DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN, HOWEVER, AND NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING INITIALLY, WE WILL PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT A
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX THAT TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A LIGHT COATING UP
TO AN INCH LOCALLY, MOST LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN IRON COUNTY, AND IT SHOULD LARGELY END BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST AIR WE'VE SEEN
SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS FOR MANY PLACES,
AND ON SATURDAY, HIGHS MAY NOT EVEN CRACK FREEZING AS COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE, BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LIKELY TO DROP
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND INTO OUR AREA. WE MAY GET SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION
WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. AN EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE SOUTH
SHORE, PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GOGEBIC/PENOKEE RANGE,
WHERE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BE PERSISTENT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH FAVORABLE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES BELOW -10C. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A DRY AIR MASS FOR THE
MOST PART, BUT WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE, A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
GOGEBIC/PENOKEE RANGE. IN ADDITION, SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THE LARGER MINNESOTA LAKES.
ANY SOUTH SHORE SNOW SHOULD WRAP UP MONDAY MORNING, THEN WE'LL WATCH
FOR ANOTHER QUICKLY PASSING SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THEM GOING INTO TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES
WITH THAT. THERE COULD BE YET ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. OVERALL, TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK, WE'LL PROBABLY SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
RIDGING TO OUR WEST MOVING EAST. SO STARTING AROUND TUESDAY AND
PERSISTING INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES "SOARING"
INTO THE 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF A INL/HIB/DLH LINE ARE STILL SEEING RAIN
WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
OTHERWISE RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANCES HANG OUT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA,
WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AT INL. MOST RAIN/SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, HOWEVER. AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY BE
SEEN PERIODICALLY AT HIB AND DLH WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE STARTING AS RAIN AND THEN CHANGING OVER TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF HYR, BUT MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT
TIMES, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH
MVFR CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND AT HYR THROUGH THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE AND AROUND
SAXON HARBOR AND THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT (30-70% CHANCE). AFTER LOW PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND WAVES UP TO
4 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE SAME PLACES AS THIS EVENING FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
WITH THIS UPDATE. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY, THOUGH
DECREASING IN SPEED THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP AGAIN GOING INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ140-148-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LSZ140-
148-150.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...JDS
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