584
FXUS63 KDLH 082135
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
335 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES
STARTING TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER FOR
SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY WITH LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
AND WAS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER
JAMES BAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WERE
LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, A STRONG STREAMER OF
VORTICITY WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS NORTHERN LOW AND BRING IN A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHLAND. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WITH LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SNOWBELT, WERE MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT
SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY. WITH
LAKE SUPERIOR STILL IN THE 40S AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO C, THIS WILL LEAD TO LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
OF AROUND 400-700 J/KG. ALONG WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND FAVORABLE TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN ASHLAND AND NORTHERN
IRON COUNTIES, THE FIRST LAKE-EFFECT SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON IS
UPON US.
HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY AND AN
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING
BETTER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5-1" PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND POOR
DRIVING CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE PENOKEE AND GOGEBIC RANGES BY THE TIME SNOW
TAPERS OFF ON MONDAY. HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH AROUND A 20-30% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING, MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL IRON COUNTY. THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON SNOWFALL RATES ON SUNDAY AND HOW QUICKLY DRY AIR
INTRUSION SUNDAY NIGHT STARTS TO EAT AWAY AT THE SNOWFALL.
ANOTHER FACTOR, AT LEAST EARLY ON, WILL BE GROUND TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COULD EAT AWAY AT ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL
BEFORE SNOWFALL RATES OVERCOME THIS. AS MONDAY PROGRESSES,
WARMER AIR ALOFT AND DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL ACT TO TURN
THE LAKE-EFFECT MACHINE OFF. OTHERWISE, DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR MOST OF
THE COMING WEEK. A FEW WEAK WAVES WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
FLOW AND BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FLURRIES OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN AGAIN MIDWEEK WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH EVEN WARMER AIR ARRIVING LATE
WEEK PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE SPREADING SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
MODELS ARE NOT SEEING THIS AT ALL. HAVE WORKED THIS TREND IN
WITH THIS UPDATE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW LONG IT WILL
STICK AROUND AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GET. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MISS THE TERMINALS BEING MAINLY LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL ALSO LIMIT THIS
ACTIVITY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF HYR.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO
5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS THEN FURTHER
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THESES WINDS WILL LEAD TO WAVES OF 2
TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND NORTHERN FACING AREAS OF THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
TUESDAY WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND LEAD TO CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MORE WESTERLY AND STRONGER, WITH A 10-30% CHANCE FOR GALES
DURING THIS TIME.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY FOR WIZ003-004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
FOR LSZ121-145>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
FOR LSZ140>144.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
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