325
FXUS63 KDLH 091852
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF IRON AND ASHLAND
COUNTIES, WITH 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE. TRAVEL WILL
BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES IN THE SOUTH SHORE SNOWBELT DUE TO
SLIPPERY ROADS AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITY.
- A MUCH QUIETER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEEK IS AHEAD, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 40S AND EVEN 50S BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
IT CERTAINLY FEELS LIKE WINTER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A COLD
FRONT HAS BROUGHT A POLAR AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. THIS COLD AIR
MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
FUEL BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN IRON AND
ASHLAND COUNTIES, WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF THIS, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. TRAVEL
WITHIN THESE SNOW BANDS COULD BECOME VERY DIFFICULT. SNOWFALL
RATES MAY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES, WHICH WILL QUICKLY
LEAD TO SLIPPERY ROADS AND DANGEROUSLY LOW VISIBILITY. FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW BELT, ONLY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED. MOST OF US WILL SEE VERY
LITTLE ACCUMULATION, LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH.
THIS BURST OF WINTER WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN FOR EVERYONE ON MONDAY AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE NORTHLAND. AFTER THAT,
A MUCH QUIETER AND MILDER PATTERN IS SET TO TAKE OVER FOR THE
ENTIRE WEEK. A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID-30S AND 40S. BY
FRIDAY, IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL AGAIN, WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID-40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THERE IS ONLY THE SMALLEST OF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
AFTER THIS BRIEF COLD SNAP, NO SNOWY SYSTEMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE PLAIN RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL CREATE CHALLENGING CONDITIONS FOR
AVIATION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR, AND AT TIMES
IFR, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF
EXCEPT AT KHYR. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT KINL
AND KHIB LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE CLOUD FORECAST
WAS PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT. I WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AS SNOW SHOWERS RARELY IMPROVE AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND
UPSTREAM OBS LOOK TO BE MVFR, NOT VFR. KEPT KHYR LOW WITH
ANTICIPATED -SHSN ACTIVITY.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL BUILD WAVES TO 2 TO 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE AND NEAR THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE POOR AT TIMES NEAR
THE SOUTH SHORE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE, LIKELY REQUIRING NEW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO WEDNESDAY, WHEN EVEN STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY GALES WEDNESDAY
AS MODEL GUSTS ARE TRENDING UPWARDS AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS FROM A LOW CROSSING HUDSON BAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ003-004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148-
150.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...WOLFE
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