530
FXUS63 KDLH 100544
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1144 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POCKETS OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM AITKIN TO MOOSE LAKE TO BAYFIELD.
VISIBILITY OF 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE IS LIKELY AT TIMES IN THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS. RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADS IS
LIKELY IN THOSE SNOW SHOWERS.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF IRON AND ASHLAND
COUNTIES, WITH 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE. TRAVEL WILL
BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES IN THE SOUTH SHORE SNOWBELT DUE TO
SLIPPERY ROADS AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITY.
- A MUCH QUIETER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEEK IS AHEAD, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 40S AND EVEN 50S BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
IT CERTAINLY FEELS LIKE WINTER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A COLD
FRONT HAS BROUGHT A POLAR AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. THIS COLD AIR
MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
FUEL BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN IRON AND
ASHLAND COUNTIES, WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF THIS, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. TRAVEL
WITHIN THESE SNOW BANDS COULD BECOME VERY DIFFICULT. SNOWFALL
RATES MAY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES, WHICH WILL QUICKLY
LEAD TO SLIPPERY ROADS AND DANGEROUSLY LOW VISIBILITY. FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW BELT, ONLY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED. MOST OF US WILL SEE VERY
LITTLE ACCUMULATION, LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH.
THIS BURST OF WINTER WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN FOR EVERYONE ON MONDAY AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE NORTHLAND. AFTER THAT,
A MUCH QUIETER AND MILDER PATTERN IS SET TO TAKE OVER FOR THE
ENTIRE WEEK. A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID-30S AND 40S. BY
FRIDAY, IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL AGAIN, WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID-40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THERE IS ONLY THE SMALLEST OF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
AFTER THIS BRIEF COLD SNAP, NO SNOWY SYSTEMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE PLAIN RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE WI SOUTH SHORE, WITH HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS AND GREATEST VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OCCURRING AROUND
IRON COUNTY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, CIGS ARE VARYING BETWEEN
VFR AND MVFR. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING INTO MONDAY
MORNING, IMPROVING TO VFR LATER IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVING LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE ARROWHEAD REGION. MODEL TRENDS ARE
INCREASING FOR MVFR CIG POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE 06Z
PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL BUILD WAVES TO 2 TO 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE AND NEAR THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE POOR AT TIMES NEAR
THE SOUTH SHORE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE, LIKELY REQUIRING NEW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO WEDNESDAY, WHEN EVEN STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY GALES WEDNESDAY
AS MODEL GUSTS ARE TRENDING UPWARDS AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS FROM A LOW CROSSING HUDSON BAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ003-004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148-
150.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...WOLFE
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