623
FXUS63 KDLH 120717
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
117 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 0.5" OR LESS.
- A DRY PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE REGION STARTING TOMORROW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
FOR MOST BY FRIDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE LIKELY TO BE RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM,
WE SHOULD HAVE AN AREA OF LINGERING STRATUS THIS EVENING.
BENEATH THE STRATUS, THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, AS
WINTRY MIXTURE. PTYPE IS GOING TO BE A BIT TRICKY AS THERE ARE
SOME HINTS WE MAY LOSE ICE ALOFT, WHICH WOULD PRODUCE FREEZING
DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF A SIMPLER RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. HAVE STUCK TO
THE RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW, BUT WE MAY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS EVENING.
A QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, WITH HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA, WITH P-TYPE MOST LIKELY
BEING RAIN. EARLY INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME (<10% CHANCE).
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK OFF TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THE TIP OF
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY DURING
THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKSIDE OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES
EAST, VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEARINGS SKIES SHOULD SET IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PERIODIC WNW WIND GUSTS TO 15
TO 20 KT CONTINUE DURING THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT, BECOMING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT.
WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY WANE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 115 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
ADDED IN A SHORT-FUSE GALE WARNING FROM TACONITE HARBOR TO GRAND
PORTAGE UNTIL 6 AM CST ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO ACCELERATED
DRAINAGE/KATABATIC WINDS OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE KGNA ASOS WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS AND AROUND THE APOSTLE ISLANDS TONIGHT, WHERE WAVES
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE STILL FURTHER ON
WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL BE A 10-30% CHANCE FOR A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE AND IN THE OUTER
APOSTLE ISLANDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ121-
142>148.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-141.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR LSZ140-141.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ150.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
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