692
FXUS63 KDLH 122034
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
234 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- 20-40% CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY RAIN, ON SATURDAY.
- STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND WITH
GUSTS OVER 30MPH LIKELY (60-90% CHANCE) AND GUSTS OVER 40MPH
POSSIBLE (10-40% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME DOMINANT TODAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
THE SYNOPTIC FEATURE THAT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ABIDES BY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THIS RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
DAY IN THE 7 DAY FORECAST WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL), COOLEST IN THE MN
ARROWHEAD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GO BELOW FREEZING.
RIDING ACROSS ON THE BACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOULD BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES, DRAGGING WITH IT MOISTURE FROM A LAND-FALLING ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER ON THE WEST COAST. RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS SEEM TO BE SETTLING A
LITTLE BIT COMPARED TO THE PLACEMENT SHIFTS THEY HAD SHOWN OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AND BEGINNING TO AGREE ON THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
BEING WELL REMOVED FROM OUR AREA, AND THE MAIN FORCING FOR ANY
SENSIBLE WEATHER TO COME ALONG AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MOST LIKELY
RAIN) WITH A COLD FRONT BRUSHING OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY. WHILE
WE WILL LIKELY BE DISCONNECTED FROM ANY GULF MOISTURE, THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE SOURCE IS NON-NEGIGIBLE WITH THE GFS SHOWING UP TO 500
KG/M/S OF INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT ALONG WITH THIS FRONT. WITH
TEMPERATURES SO WARM, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE RAIN
AND FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OF A COUPLE TENTHS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. EXPECT ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT COULD LEAD GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS OVER OF 30-40MPH ARE POSSIBLE, HIGHEST
ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES.
AS THAT SYSTEM PASSES, IT SHOULD BRING SOME CAA BACK TO THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO DROP BACK TO SUB-FREEZING LOWS AND
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. INTO NEXT WEEK, SIGNALS BECOME VERY
FUZZY AS MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE. ENSEMBLES ARE SORT OF IN AGREEMENT
THAT SOME KIND OF DISTURBANCE SHOULD EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THEY HAVE WILDLY DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON EXACTLY WHERE THAT LOW COULD TRACK AND WHAT KIND OF
STRENGTH IT MIGHT HAVE. WHILE THE EURO ENSEMBLE TAKES A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE MIDWEST, THE GEFS
DIVES SOUTH WITH IT. FOR NOW WE'RE CARRYING A 15-30% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH TEMPERATURES
STRADDLING FREEZING BUT ANYTHING BEYOND SUNDAY IS VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD START TO DIE DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT, WITH HIGHER WAVES
SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL WESTERLY WINDS PICK BACK UP AGAIN
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IS LIKELY
THIS WEEKEND WITH A 10-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ121-
145>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ140-141-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ142>144.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...LEVENS
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