613
FXUS63 KDLH 101739
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1139 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER THAT CAME THROUGH YESTERDAY EVENING.
THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CHANCES OF 1" BEING AROUND 10-20%.
- ARCTIC AIR ENGULFS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY STRUGGLING TO STAY ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO COLD WEATHER HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGE BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
OUR QUICK MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER IS EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING WITH SNOWFALL LARGELY TAPERING OFF NW TO SE. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS DONE, THE
SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE ON THE REGION AND MAY PRODUCE
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. RADAR HASN'T SHOWN ANY
CONVERGENCE BANDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR JUST YET BUT THERE IS STILL
A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
BAND TO FORM. HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS GREATLY BACKED OFF ANY
INITIATION AND WINDS WILL BE LESS CONDUCIVE AFTER 5AM WHEN THEY
ARE COMPLETELY NORTHERLY. HOWEVER, SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE SOUTH SHORE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST WILL BE FROM KOOCHICHING DOWN THROUGH
THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. CONVERGENT WINDS FROM THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM HAVE LEAD TO A LIGHT QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE. NOT
MUCH FORCING TO WORK WITH AS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS LARGELY NVA
BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A HALF INCH THIS MORNING. ALL
THIS TO SAY, YOUR SNOW TOTALS YOU WAKE UP TO THIS MORNING WILL
LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY
GIVING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF HALF AN INCH. GIVEN THE
OVERALL DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
EXPECTED WE HAVE CANCELED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES UP RESIDENCY OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY
HELPING TO DEFLECT ANOTHER CLIPPER TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO DIVE THROUGH NE WE STILL MAY GET A
GLANCING SHOT (20-30% CHANCE) OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE BRAINERD
LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. BASED ON THE 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE THIS SNOW WILL ENTER
FRIDAY MORNING AND EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LOW PWATS WILL KEEP SNOWFALL ON
THE LOW SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, THE NBM IS GIVING PROBABILITIES OF
GREATER THAN AN INCH OF SNOW AROUND 10-20%. THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD BE THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE BOTH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND A GRAVITY WAVE MAY IMPACT THE AREA.
WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK:
NO NOTICEABLE SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE AS WE STROLL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION POURING COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STAY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE FRIGID BETWEEN -15F AND -20F. BUT
WHEN WE FACTOR IN WIND CHILL THOSE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO
FEEL CLOSER TO -20F TO -35F. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED. FAST FORWARD TO NEXT WEEK AND WE SEE A BIT OF A WARM
UP WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR TUESDAY.
FOR CONTEXT, HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID
20S, SO NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM WHAT WE NORMALLY EXPERIENCE. BUT
AFTER BEING LOCKED IN THE FRIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE A
WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE BITTER COLD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME CLEARING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER THE ARROWHEAD AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN, AND
THIS CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO DLH/HIB/INL AFTER
SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HYR AND ESPECIALLY BRD WILL BE
DELAYED IN SEEING ANY CLEARING. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY AT BRD FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
GRADUALLY BEFORE SUNSET. NORTHWEST WINDS LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT,
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES
TONIGHT, WITH THE BEST SIGNAL AT HYR. CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME, BUT THERE IS A ~10-20%
CHANCE OF THERE BEING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EVEN LIGHT FOG
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25KTS EXPECTED. STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM GRAND MARIAS TO GRAND PORTAGE BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRING THROUGH THE
DAY. AN EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ140-141.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...BRITT
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