112
FXUS63 KDLH 120937
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL BRING UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 45
MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNINGS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEASTERN MANITOBA. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO, FAR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WERE EVIDENT ON RADAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
BAYFIELD PENINSULA INTO IRON COUNTY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY SUNDAY AS WELL. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UNDER AN INCH FOR
MOST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND INTO NORTHERN IRON
COUNTY.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WORKED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FACTORS COMING TOGETHER. THIS WAS
COVERED EXTREMELY WELL IN THE PREVIOUS AFD. ALL THREE MECHANISMS
DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY REMAIN IN PLACE. THERE STILL REMAINS A
CHANCE FOR SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN SOME OF THE HI-
RES GUIDANCE, MOST NOTABLY THE ARW. CONFIDENCE ON THESE HIGHER
GUSTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE,
BUT IF THE SIGNAL REMAINS, ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTH SHORE
ZONES.
VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND LINGERS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS BEFORE FALLING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES DON'T RECOVER MUCH FOR SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG WITH POSITIVE
SIGNAL DIGITS NEAR THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES THEN TUMBLE INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR SUNDAY. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHTS, SO
WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND 20S
AND 30S BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS REACHING THE TEENS AND 20S ABOVE ZERO FOR
MONDAY. A CLIPPER WILL GRAZE THE REGION MONDAY AND MAY BRING A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE ARROWHEAD AND BORDERLANDS.
TEMPERATURES FURTHER WARM INTO THE 30S WITH PERHAPS A FEW 40S
FOR TUESDAY WITH 30S STICKING AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH IN THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH
HINTS AT A LARGER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION, ALTHOUGH GLOBAL
MODELS ARE PAINTING DIFFERENT PICTURES CURRENTLY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
OUR NEXT CLIPPER IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR. MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND END LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING IN SOME IFR CEILINGS IN SPOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, BUT HAVE KEPT MVFR WITH
THIS UPDATE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND MIDDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL
THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GALES TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW
STORM FORCE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY BETWEEN SILVER BAY AND
GRAND MARAIS. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTH SHORE FOR TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ALONG PARTS OF
THE SOUTH SHORE AND OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ140>143.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ140>143.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ146-147-150.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
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