356
FXUS63 KDLH 122341
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
541 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF, BUT INTENSE, SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL LEAD TO MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AND POTENTIALLY SLICK ROADS.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 MPH WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, BRINGING
A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE INCH, THE TIMING MAY
IMPACT TRAVEL WITH SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SURFACES AND BRIEF,
BUT INTENSE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AS THE FRONT PASSES, THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH STRONGER GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO TERRAIN
EFFECTS. THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN
COUNTRY, REDUCING VISIBILITY EVEN AFTER THE FALLING SNOW ENDS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO TWENTIES BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP INTO
THE 25 TO 40 BELOW ZERO RANGE. FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR ON EXPOSED
SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 10 TO 30 MINUTES IN THESE CONDITIONS.
BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH ZERO DEGREES FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, RESULTING IN DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS. BY SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN,
ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE SLIGHTLY, THOUGH A VERY COLD START TO THE
DAY IS STILL EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN SHIFTS DRAMATICALLY. WARMER
AIR WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. WE EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S BY MONDAY AND LIKELY
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE 30S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WARMING TREND LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, OFFERING
A REPRIEVE FROM THE WEEKEND DEEP FREEZE.
MAY SEE AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERN CONNECTION LATE
NEXT WEEK THOUGH GUIDANCE IS STILL WAFFLING WITH ITS EXISTENCE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
SOME MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD BECOME VFR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CEILINGS
FOR INL - A LOT OF GUIDANCE POINTS TO IFR CEILINGS MOVING IN THROUGH
THIS EVENING, BUT THERE ARE NO UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS THAT SUPPORT
THAT. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A MVFR CEILING ON IT AND AMEND IF NEEDED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS SHOULD THOSE LOWER VALUES MATERIALIZE.
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH
SHORE ZONES WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO A MAJOR CONCERN ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE AND APOSTLE ISLANDS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS, WAVES, AND VERY COLD AIR. WINDS TEMPORARILY DECREASE ON
SUNDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ140>143.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ140>143.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ146-147-150.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...WOLFE
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