736
FXUS63 KDLH 040948
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
348 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MESSY WINTRY SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
BRINGING A MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE, AND SLEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
- A SECOND MESSY SYSTEM BRINGING A WINTRY MIX IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- WARM TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
TODAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS A MESSY WINTRY SYSTEM
PROPAGATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED AROUND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE QUICKLY DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE, ARRIVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING. MAIN
CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE INCLUDE MESSY
PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE TO THE INTRUSION OF A WARM NOSE, HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES ALONG A NARROW BAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND A
LOSS OF ICE ALOFT CREATING FREEZING DRIZZLE FOLLOWING THE SNOWFALL
THIS EVENING.
STARTING WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES, THIS IS THE GREATEST SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S SYSTEM. A STRONG LLJ AT 850MB UP
TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE PROVIDING AMPLE WAA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MN BY
MIDDAY. THIS WARM NOSE AROUND THE 700-850MB LAYER WILL LIKELY CREATE
MESSY PRECIPITATION TYPES INITIALLY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. ONE QUESTION WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THIS
MORNING IS THE AMOUNT OF SLEET VERSUS FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL OCCUR
IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HI-RES MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN KBRD AND KHYR SUGGEST THAT THE SUB-FREEZING LAYER WILL
BE EXTENDING AS DEEP AS AROUND 4,000 FT AGL. THIS DEPTH OF THE
REFREEZE LAYER FAVORS MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN, WHICH IS WHAT
WAS LEANED INTO IN THE UPDATE THIS MORNING.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY, THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. BY THIS POINT IN THE DAY, THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW. EXCLUDING
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDED SNOWFALL FROM TODAY'S SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH FGEN AND HIGH NEGATIVE OMEGA OCCUR
IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE PROFILE. THE
00Z HREF REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY BANDED SNOWFALL, WITH
1 HOUR SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1" QUICKLY MOVING FROM THE IRON
RANGE TO TWIN PORTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST WI AND
THE NORTH SHORE THIS EVENING. EXPECT SLIGHT LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR ALONG THE NORTH SHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCUR. SNOW WILL BE
COMING TO AN END TONIGHT AS THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
QUICKLY PROPAGATES DOWNSTREAM.
TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL BE HIGHEST AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 2-4 INCHES
FORECAST. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5" ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORE, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS LOW
(30% CHANCE). FARTHER AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR, EXPECT LESSER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE TRACE TO 3" RANGE.
IN ADDITION TO SNOW, LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.05" FROM
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR ADVECTION
CAUSES A LOSS OF SATURATION ALOFT. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WATCH FOR SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH
SHORES.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UNSEASONABLY WARM SIDE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
30S. A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO PROPAGATE INTO THE MIDWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MESSY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
START OFF AS FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY MORNING, COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
CWA, TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TYPE TO MORE OF A WINTRY MIX
TO SNOW FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP
AN EYE ON, AS ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.1" ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
TIME OF THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1". HOWEVER, IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIP REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS ACROSS THE CWA IS LOW AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE WARM, WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
A LOW STRATUS DECK OF MVFR/IFR CIG HEIGHTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. KINL HAS BEEN SEEING IFR CIGS FROM THIS AREA OF LOW
STRATUS, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS
HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE. LOW PRESSURE BRINGING A WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WILL VERY LIKELY REDUCE CONDITIONS FROM VFR.
HEAVIEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AS A BAND OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WINDS AND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW MOVES THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING, POTENTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
WAVES WILL BE BUILDING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TODAY, WITH HEIGHTS UP
TO 3 FEET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WINDS RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND WAVES SUBSIDE TO 1 FOOT OR LESS ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ020-021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR MNZ025-026-034>038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...UNRUH
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