845
FXUS63 KDLH 041745
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MESSY WINTRY SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
BRINGING A MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE, AND SLEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
- A SECOND MESSY SYSTEM BRINGING A WINTRY MIX IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- WARM TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
TODAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS A MESSY WINTRY SYSTEM
PROPAGATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED AROUND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE QUICKLY DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE, ARRIVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING. MAIN
CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE INCLUDE MESSY
PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE TO THE INTRUSION OF A WARM NOSE, HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES ALONG A NARROW BAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND A
LOSS OF ICE ALOFT CREATING FREEZING DRIZZLE FOLLOWING THE SNOWFALL
THIS EVENING.
STARTING WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES, THIS IS THE GREATEST SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S SYSTEM. A STRONG LLJ AT 850MB UP
TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE PROVIDING AMPLE WAA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MN BY
MIDDAY. THIS WARM NOSE AROUND THE 700-850MB LAYER WILL LIKELY CREATE
MESSY PRECIPITATION TYPES INITIALLY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. ONE QUESTION WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THIS
MORNING IS THE AMOUNT OF SLEET VERSUS FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL OCCUR
IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HI-RES MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN KBRD AND KHYR SUGGEST THAT THE SUB-FREEZING LAYER WILL
BE EXTENDING AS DEEP AS AROUND 4,000 FT AGL. THIS DEPTH OF THE
REFREEZE LAYER FAVORS MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN, WHICH IS WHAT
WAS LEANED INTO IN THE UPDATE THIS MORNING.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY, THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. BY THIS POINT IN THE DAY, THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW. EXCLUDING
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDED SNOWFALL FROM TODAY'S SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH FGEN AND HIGH NEGATIVE OMEGA OCCUR
IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE PROFILE. THE
00Z HREF REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY BANDED SNOWFALL, WITH
1 HOUR SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1" QUICKLY MOVING FROM THE IRON
RANGE TO TWIN PORTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST WI AND
THE NORTH SHORE THIS EVENING. EXPECT SLIGHT LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR ALONG THE NORTH SHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCUR. SNOW WILL BE
COMING TO AN END TONIGHT AS THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
QUICKLY PROPAGATES DOWNSTREAM.
TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL BE HIGHEST AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 2-4 INCHES
FORECAST. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5" ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORE, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS LOW
(30% CHANCE). FARTHER AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR, EXPECT LESSER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE TRACE TO 3" RANGE.
IN ADDITION TO SNOW, LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.05" FROM
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR ADVECTION
CAUSES A LOSS OF SATURATION ALOFT. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WATCH FOR SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH
SHORES.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UNSEASONABLY WARM SIDE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
30S. A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO PROPAGATE INTO THE MIDWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MESSY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
START OFF AS FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY MORNING, COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
CWA, TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TYPE TO MORE OF A WINTRY MIX
TO SNOW FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP
AN EYE ON, AS ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.1" ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
TIME OF THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1". HOWEVER, IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIP REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS ACROSS THE CWA IS LOW AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE WARM, WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT INL/HIB/HYR TO IMMEDIATELY START THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS STRONGLY
FORCED, BANDED PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING FROM BJI SOUTHEAST TO
AIT AND RZN AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A
BJI TO DLH TO ASX LINE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND SNOW
NORTH OF THIS LINE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES IN THE NARROW,
BANDED SNOW WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING BEFORE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP AS LOW AS 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIEST PORTION
OF THE SNOW, BUT ANY ONE TERMINAL SHOULD ONLY SEE THESE IMPACTS
FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS. AS THE SNOWFALL DEPARTS THIS EVENING, FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL FOLLOW IN IT'S WAKE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
CONDITIONS FAVOR FOG/FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BECOME DENSE, FAVORING
THE BRD AREA EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR
CIGS WITH THIS DRIZZLE AND POTENTIALLY VLIFR CIGS WHERE DENSE
FOG DEVELOPS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AROUND 7-10 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 15-18 KT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WINDS AND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW MOVES THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING, POTENTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
WAVES WILL BE BUILDING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TODAY, WITH HEIGHTS UP
TO 3 FEET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WINDS RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND WAVES SUBSIDE TO 1 FOOT OR LESS ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ020-
021-025-026-033>038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...UNRUH
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