239
FXUS63 KDLH 041938
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
138 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MESSY WINTRY SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT, BRINGING A MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE, AND SLEET. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG (30-60%) FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.
- A SECOND MESSY SYSTEM BRINGING INITIALLY FREEZING RAIN AND
THEN A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
THIS AFTERNOON - EVENING:
AREA RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT A NARROW
BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM ITASCA
COUNTY SOUTHEAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR
VERTICAL ASCENT ON THE LEADING SIDE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS LED TO A SMALL WARM NOSE IN THE 700-850MB
LAYER MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND,
WHICH IS AND WILL RESULT IN A MESS OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. THERE
HAVE ALREADY BEEN EARLY REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND
SNOW FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR SOUTH
OF THE TWIN PORTS. THIS MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES
EAST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR, AND LINGER LONGEST IN NW WI
THROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. WITH A DEEP SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURE LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 3000-5000 FT ABOVE
GROUND, SLEET SEEMS TO BE THE MORE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE
OVER FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS, THOUGH A COMBO OF THE
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW WILL ALL STILL BE SEEN. FARTHER
NORTH TOWARDS US-2 APPEARS TO BE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH AND MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW
NORTH OF THE US-2 CORRIDOR AS THE WARM NOSE DECREASES WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT PER LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES FOR 1-3 HOURS AT ANY ONE
LOCATION GIVEN THE NARROWNESS OF THE BAND, INCLUDING IN THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z HREF 1-HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE OF
SNOW RATES OF 0.5-1"/HR FOR THE IRON RANGE TO TWIN PORTS AND
PORTIONS OF NW WI BY MID-AFTERNOON, SHIFTING INTO THE ARROWHEAD
AND NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, AND THEN THE HIGHER RATES EXIT TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. LIGHTER SNOW QUICKLY COMES TO AN END SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN, AS WELL.
SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT
LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT TO SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE. TOTAL SNOWFALL RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAS
INCREASED EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 2-5" AMOUNTS
ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES. PROBABILITIES FOR >4" AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE ONLY ABOUT 30-40% AND DROP OFF TO 10% FOR >6".
FARTHER AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF TO A
TRACE TO 3", WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH IN
THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO AITKIN, PINE, BURNETT AND WASHBURN
COUNTIES.
AS FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS, A LOSS OF CLOUD ICE ALOFT BEHIND THE
SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND, PARTICULARLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND INTO NW WI. WHEN COMBINING FORECAST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AMOUNTS SHOULD
RANGE FROM A LIGHT GLAZE TO JUST UNDER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
THE BRAINERD LAKES TO I-35 CORRIDOR AND INLAND NW WI, AND LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOCATIONS
HAVE NOT BEEN CHANGED, BUT THE ADVISORIES IN CENTRAL TO EAST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WERE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO
THE LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE POSSIBLE FROM THE LINGERING FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT - DAYTIME MONDAY:
AFTER PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ENDS LATER THIS
EVENING, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HANGING AROUND MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SIGNAL FOR UPWARD OMEGA
(LIFT) DROPS OFF OVERNIGHT, SO ANTICIPATE THAT THIS MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN FOG/FREEZING FOG TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME FOG, THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE
IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO I-35 CORRIDOR TO INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WHERE VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.
THERE IS ALSO A 30-60% PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 MILE IN THE SAME SPECIFIED AREAS, SO
AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR. HOLDING OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ISSUANCE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST UPDATE. HOWEVER,
THEY MAY BE NEEDED IF PROBABILITIES INCREASE.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES HANG AROUND INTO DAYTIME MONDAY,
BUT WARM ADVECTION FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD STILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN NE MN AND LOW
TO MID 30S IN NW WI FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE EVENING.
MONDAY EVENING - TUESDAY:
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN EAST INTO LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. ANOTHER WARM NOSE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALMOST
ALL OF THE NORTHLAND AT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD FAVOR FREEZING RAIN TO START. THE WARM NOSE THEN EXITS
LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON FROM NW TO SE, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX TO SNOW
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS
TUESDAY EVENING. THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE FAVORS
THE BRAINERD LAKES TO TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH SHORE AS WELL AS
AREAS SOUTH SEEING THE PRECIPITATION, WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY
DROPPING OFF NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, PROBABILITIES
OF 0.10" OR GREATER OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE 20-40% ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, LIKELY
IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1" ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IN EAST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NW WI.
WEDNESDAY - NEXT WEEKEND:
THE PATTERN FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE LATER
WEEK AND WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AS GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COLORADO LOW-TYPE SYSTEM DEVELOPING LATE
THURSDAY AND TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND PROJECTED SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE
NORTHLAND/UPPER MIDWEST. IN FACT, ENSEMBLE LOW TRACKS RANGE FROM
AS FAR NORTH AS THE TWIN PORTS TO AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN
INDIANA BY EARLY SATURDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL HOLD ONTO 20-50%
CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM'S TRACK. MID TO LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN COOLING DOWN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND IN THE
WAKE OF THE LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS ARCTIC AIR GETS PULLED
BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT INL/HIB/HYR TO IMMEDIATELY START THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS STRONGLY
FORCED, BANDED PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING FROM BJI SOUTHEAST TO
AIT AND RZN AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A
BJI TO DLH TO ASX LINE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND SNOW
NORTH OF THIS LINE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES IN THE NARROW,
BANDED SNOW WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING BEFORE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP AS LOW AS 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIEST PORTION
OF THE SNOW, BUT ANY ONE TERMINAL SHOULD ONLY SEE THESE IMPACTS
FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS. AS THE SNOWFALL DEPARTS THIS EVENING, FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL FOLLOW IN IT'S WAKE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
CONDITIONS FAVOR FOG/FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BECOME DENSE, FAVORING
THE BRD AREA EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR
CIGS WITH THIS DRIZZLE AND POTENTIALLY VLIFR CIGS WHERE DENSE
FOG DEVELOPS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AROUND 7-10 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 15-18 KT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND LESS THAN
20 KT. A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
POTENTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS. ANY ONE
LOCATION WILL ONLY SEE 1-3 HOURS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES.
WAVES WILL BE BUILDING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TODAY, WITH HEIGHTS
UP TO 3 FEET FOR TONIGHT. WINDS RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND WAVES SUBSIDE TO 1 FOOT OR LESS ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
NEXT DECENT POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER
VESSELS RETURNS LATE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE U.S.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ020-
021-025-026-033>038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
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