954
FXUS63 KDLH 051140
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
540 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MESSY WINTRY SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FREEZING RAIN IS THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.2".
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND STARTING THIS EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD
LEAD TO A SLIPPERY TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- QUIETER WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH LOCALLY DENSE AROUND THE TWIN
PORTS AND IRON RANGE IS BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING
THE DEPARTURE OF A MESSY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG IS LARGELY ANTICIPATED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH TODAY AS
WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND LOW-LEVEL SATURATION
REMAINS ELEVATED. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE SFC LOW TRACK IS HIGH, WITH NEARLY EVERY
MEMBER OF THE GEFS AND ENSEMBLE ECMWF SHOWING THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER BEING IN NORTHERN IL BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN
FEATURE OF CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A BAND
OF ELEVATED FGEN AND NEGATIVE OMEGA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. WAA FROM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A STRONG WARM NOSE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE 925-700MB LAYER WITH SFC TEMPS BEING AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. THIS THERMODYNAMIC SETUP MAKES FREEZING RAIN AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ENHANCED BAND OF
PRECIP.
THE GREATEST SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SYSTEM LIES IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP BAND, THE
INFLUENCE OF SFC TEMPS BEING RIGHT AT FREEZING, AND A POTENTIAL LOSS
OF ICE ALOFT FROM DRY AIR ADVECTION AT/ABOVE THE WARM NOSE. RUN-TO-
RUN COMPARISONS BETWEEN THE CAMS REFLECT THIS HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY, WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES APPEARING IN ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
GIVEN THE LARGE BOOM POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE FORECAST UPDATE
LEANED INTO THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTIONS FOR ICE AMOUNTS. HOWEVER,
THESE ICE AMOUNTS OF 0.1-0.2" MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IF THE RECENT
TREND OF DRY AIR INTRUSION APPEARING IN MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLDS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
ZONES IN THE CWA, EXCLUDING SOUTHERN CASS COUNTY, STARTING THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS ICE AMOUNTS THAT WOULD WARRANT AN EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FARTHER NORTH, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. ONE GREAT EXAMPLE OF THIS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN END
APPEARS WELL IN THE SPREAD OF ICE AMOUNTS FROM THE 00Z HREF. THE
25TH PERCENTILE SHOWS 0.00" OF ICE FOR CARLTON AND SOUTHERN ST.
LOUIS COUNTY, WHILE THE 75TH PERCENTILE SHOWS 0.15-0.17". KEEP
AN EYE OUT FOR A POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY FARTHER
NORTH AS WE GET CLOSER TO TONIGHT.
AFTER THIS MESSY LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWNSTREAM ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, A QUIETER PATTERN WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA. 500MB FLOW
ALOFT WILL LARGELY BE ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE 30S.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EMERGES ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A PANHANDLE
HOOK SYSTEM LIKELY DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
UNLIKE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY'S SYSTEM, THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE
FULLY WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR OF THIS LOW PRESSURE. THEREFORE, ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WE SEE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY FALL AS
SNOW. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH BOTH THE GEFS
AND EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE CENTERS SHOWING LARGE
SPATIAL DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF EFI DOES HIGHLIGHT AN ELEVATED SHIFT
OF TAILS FOR NORTHWEST WI AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR THOUGH, SO THIS WILL
BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE ON HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
IFR TO LIFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG
CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
VISIBILITY LIKELY TO OCCUR FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
FOG RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN FOR KBRD, KHYR,
AND KDLH AS THE LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EVEN AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER VESSELS RETURNS LATE
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, WITH
THE CURRENT PROBABILITY BEING A 30% CHANCE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR MNZ034-036-038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR WIZ006>009.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...UNRUH
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