886
FXUS63 KDLH 052137
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
TUESDAY.
- ICE AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING DECREASED. FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ICE ACCUMULATION FROM A LIGHT
GLAZE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CROW WING
COUNTY EAST TO PRICE COUNTY STARTING THIS EVENING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD LEAD TO A SLIPPERY TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
- DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH VISIBILITY
LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND DECREASED. THERE REMAINS A 5 TO 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN DURING THAT TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE INVOLVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ICING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM WHICH COULD
GRAZE THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST ICE AMOUNTS TRENDED LOWER WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC, AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, AND
WEBCAMS REVEAL LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF 850 TO 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA TO FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WE EXPECT THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AND EXPAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. THAT WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO THE CANADIAN BORDERLANDS. FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE REPORTED OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY. WHILE VISIBILITY AT SOME LOCATIONS
SHOWED IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON, WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO
TREND LOWER AND FOG TO BECOME DENSE TONIGHT. WE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA. THE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL
START OUT ON THE MINNESOTA SIDE AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD WITH
TIME TONIGHT. FOR OUR MINNESOTA COUNTIES, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT AT 6 PM. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY BEGINS AT 9 PM. THE ADVISORY FOR BOTH AREAS EXPIRES AT
NOON TUESDAY.
THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTED SOUTH WITH THIS MORNING'S MODEL RUNS. LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 285-300K LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SQUEEZE FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LAYER. THAT
LAYER OF MOISTURE RANGES FROM AROUND 1-3 THOUSAND FEET IN DEPTH.
A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEST 925 TO 850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL ADD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE DECIDED
TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE DESPITE ICE
ACCUMULATION TRENDING LOWER, IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY BE A
DUSTING UP TO AN INCH.
FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY WE EXPECT A QUIETER STRETCH
OF WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES (OR MORE) ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS DURING THAT TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE TRACK OF A POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS MORNING'S DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DECREASED THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 PERCENT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE RISK THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FORECAST LOW TRACK MAY
SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE WEST/NORTH, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE RISK
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHLAND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
LIFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AT LEAST. IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED AS
WELL. VISIBILITY WILL TREND LOWER TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 1/4
MILE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AT HYR AS FREEZING RAIN. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR BRD OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
AND NEAR HYR UP TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
BY THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PASS
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WHICH COULD BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE FORM OF STRONG WINDS. THIS
MORNING'S FORECAST DATA SHOWS THE LOW TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST THAN EARLIER FORECASTS, WHICH DECREASES THE RISK OF
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE
FORECAST TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE RISK OF HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR MNZ034-036-038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR WIZ006>009.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...HUYCK
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