598
FXUS63 KDLH 061748
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1148 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG AND AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING,
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON.
- WARM WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE DAY.
- LARGER WINTER STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, LARGELY MISSING THE
NORTHLAND. THERE IS STILL A ~10% CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING
WILL BE DENSE FOG. VISIBILITIES ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING AROUND A
MILE WITH SOME LOCATIONS LOWER. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT NOT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, BUT NEVERTHELESS, WE ARE
SEEING AT LEAST SOME FOG PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES MAY NOT START TO IMPROVE UNTIL MID-MORNING OR SO
FROM WHERE THEY'RE AT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON TODAY.
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL TROUBLES THIS
MORNING AS WELL. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE SOME RADAR RETURNS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST VERY
LITTLE OF THIS IS PROBABLY REACHING THE GROUND. THE MAIN AREA OF
FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY IS JUST SOUTH OF US DOWN TOWARDS THE
TWIN CITIES, BUT THIS AREA OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST THIS MORNING. WE WILL RETAIN A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BURNETT/WASHBURN/SAWYER/PRICE COUNTIES
THROUGH NOON THIS MORNING AS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT MOST OF
IT WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT PERHAPS GRAZING THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES AND LEADING TO A SLICK
MORNING COMMUTE.
THE CURRENT COMPLEX OF SHOWERS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEAST AND HOLD ITSELF TOGETHER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE SHOWERS ARE FORMING OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7 C/KM. DESPITE SOME OF THE DRY AIR BENEATH THE SHOWERS,
A LITTLE INTENSIFICATION COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OF
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY, SO WE WON'T TOSS OUT ANY WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. BUT, THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE SOME
LOCALIZED SLICK SPOTS OUT THERE IF THESE PERSIST. THIS MORNING,
THAT WOULD BE AROUND THE IRON RANGE TO BRAINERD LAKES, THEN
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE TWIN PORTS/NORTH SHORE/I-35 CORRIDOR MID-
MORNING, THEN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MID-DAY. ICING FROM THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A LIGHT GLAZE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, SOME
DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE IN, AND THIS SHOULD END
THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN THREAT. WE WILL STILL REMAIN IN A WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME INTO TONIGHT. WHILE THE FOGGY CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS (BRAINERD LAKES
TOWARDS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN) WHERE MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BE ADDED TO THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FROM A LITTLE SNOWMELT. THERE'S
A ~30-70% CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES TO FALL BELOW A QUARTER MILE
(I.E. DENSE FOG) TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THOSE AREAS.
WE WILL WAIT FOR CURRENT DENSE FOG HEADLINES TO EXPIRE BEFORE
CONSIDERING ANY MORE FOR TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ISN'T QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH ON THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG RIGHT NOW ANYWAY.
WE WILL BE UNDER A RIDGING PATTERN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
BRINGING ABOVE FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH THAT, WE'LL SEE
A LITTLE SNOWMELT, AND THIS MIGHT KEEP THE FOG AROUND AT TIMES
THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE AT LEAST SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AT TIMES AS WELL.
WE'VE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PANHANDLE HOOK STORM
LATE THIS WEEK. RIGHT NOW, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO
TAKE THIS STORM WELL SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE A
SECONDARY LOW SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE THE FAR WESTERN EDGE
OF SNOW COULD IMPACT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE WILL THUS RETAIN
ABOUT A 10% CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATING SNOW THERE, BUT
IT'S VERY POSSIBLE THAT EFFECTS EVEN IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
COULD BE MINIMAL.
IT'S LOOKING LIKE A LITTLE BIT OF A TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, GETTING COOLER, THEN WARMER
AGAIN. WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW
AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND CURRENTLY
WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
LINGERING AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. VSBYS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO AT
LEAST MVFR FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COMING BACK DOWN
TO IFR OR LOWER AS FOG REDEVELOPS TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT DLH.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KT. WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
LIKELY AROUND GRAND PORTAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND MAYBE A
5-10% CHANCE FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. ASIDE FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND GRAND PORTAGE, HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR
SMALL CRAFT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
025-026-033>038.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ006>009.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...JDS
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