881
FXUS63 KDLH 062021
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
221 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FOG LINGERING FOR TONIGHT.
- DRY AND MILD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE PATTERN TURNS COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY AND WEST OF JAMES
BAY IN NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN,
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN, RADAR RETURNS
WERE EVIDENT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN,
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE NORTHLAND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRACE
TO PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY IRON AND PRICE COUNTIES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT, WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND BRING WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH LATE
MORNING. SOME AREAS OF FOG MAY BE DENSE AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF DENSE FOG IS WIDESPREAD.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE 30S ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WITH
THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SNOWMELT, THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
PANHANDLE HOOK STORM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM OUT
OF THE NORTHLAND, ASIDE FROM PERHAPS PRICE COUNTY SEEING CHANCES
FOR RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
ANOTHER LOW THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
EASTERN TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THESE
SYSTEMS INTERACT ACROSS THE MIDWEST, LIGHT SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
SNOWBELT WITH LAKE-ENHANCEMENT FOLLOWED BY LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY IN THE 20S. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LINGER INTO
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A BRIEF WARMUP TO START THE WEEK BEFORE
COOLING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND CURRENTLY
WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
LINGERING AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. VSBYS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO AT
LEAST MVFR FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COMING BACK DOWN
TO IFR OR LOWER AS FOG REDEVELOPS TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT DLH.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE. STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH/NEAR THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A 5 TO
10% CHANCE OF GALES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE, NO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIZ007>009.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
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